Higher than normal level of toxins are slashing the income of some farmers in Ohio.
According to representatives of the Ohio State University Extension Service, vomitoxin levels are the worst in seven to ten years in some areas of the state, especially areas where it's cooler and wet.
A wet May in particular produced conditions for the fungus to thrive.
The high levels of toxins limit the use of wheat for people, and also in livestock, especially pigs, which could cause a lot of problems in them.
Showing posts with label Wheat News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wheat News. Show all posts
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Wheat Outlook Dismal on Supplies
Wheat Inventory High
Stockpiles of wheat are leaving the industry reeling even more, as the largest inventory in over 20 years is emerging from the heavy wheat harvest.
Projections are there will be close to 1 billion bushels of wheat in the warehouses and bins when the harvest comes in; 20 million bushels beyond the estimates of the USDA.
The already low prices will drop even lower, as farmers continue to plant the grain based on prices from several years ago, rather than prevailing market conditions.
This is expected to finally correct the over-planting of wheat as farmers look to other areas to generate profits, as wheat hasn't been doing it for a few years.
The reasons for wheat being so abundant is lower exports as many countries are planting wheat and getting good results, and American consumers aren't consuming as much, driving domestic demand down. That and just too much wheat being planted is the issue driving the huge wheat inventory.
Wheat Inventory High
Stockpiles of wheat are leaving the industry reeling even more, as the largest inventory in over 20 years is emerging from the heavy wheat harvest.
Projections are there will be close to 1 billion bushels of wheat in the warehouses and bins when the harvest comes in; 20 million bushels beyond the estimates of the USDA.
The already low prices will drop even lower, as farmers continue to plant the grain based on prices from several years ago, rather than prevailing market conditions.
This is expected to finally correct the over-planting of wheat as farmers look to other areas to generate profits, as wheat hasn't been doing it for a few years.
The reasons for wheat being so abundant is lower exports as many countries are planting wheat and getting good results, and American consumers aren't consuming as much, driving domestic demand down. That and just too much wheat being planted is the issue driving the huge wheat inventory.
Wheat Inventory High
Monday, August 10, 2009
Wheat Exports in Slow Start
Exports of U.S. wheat promise to be down significantly for 2009-2010, according to the USDA, as projections are for about 925 million bushels of wheat to export during that time period, where the marketing year began on June 1.
Assuming this is accurate, which it seems it's close, that would be 90 million less bushels of wheat exported this year over last, and a huge 339 million less than the 2007-2008 year.
At this pace it'll be the third worst year of wheat exports in 25 years.
Wheat export inspections for the first 9.6 weeks show that they're at 130.7 million bushels; almost 100 million bushels under last year at this time. The weekly average wheat inspection has been at an anemic 13.7 million bushels.
This is even far below the USDA export projection of 925 million bushels, as the average needed to reach that is 18.7 million bushels for the rest of the year, which will be difficult to attain.
While some say this isn't a good comparison over the very quick rate of wheat exports last year, it still is far behind what would be needed to reach projections. As fo the end of July, the USDA said outstanding export sales of wheat stood at 148 million bushels, while last year it was at 276 million bushels.
The USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report breaks down exports and export sales by where the wheat is headed and by class of wheat. Through July 30, export commitments compared to those of last year plunged by 60 percent for hard red winter wheat, 63 percent for soft red winter wheat, and 26 percent for hard red spring wheat. Export commitments were 17 percent larger for white wheat and 15 percent larger for durum wheat. Commitments for all classes of wheat were down by a huge 46 percent.
Among its largest wheat trading partners, commitments have dropped significantly; 27 percent to the Philippines, 45 percent to Japan, 48 percent to Mexico, and 87 percent to Egypt. Egypt buys only soft red winter wheat from the U.S.
Exports of wheat globally are down this year because a number of countries have significantly increased wheat production domestically, so diminishing the amount of wheat needed for its citizenry outside the countries.
Much of the recent low wheat prices has been attributed primarily to the decline in export demand for soft red winter wheat, which doesn't look to change this year.
As far as wheat inventories globally, they are expected to grow by 8 percent this year, which equals 512 million bushels. Of that, China will account for 80 percent of the wheat inventory increase.
Assuming this is accurate, which it seems it's close, that would be 90 million less bushels of wheat exported this year over last, and a huge 339 million less than the 2007-2008 year.
At this pace it'll be the third worst year of wheat exports in 25 years.
Wheat export inspections for the first 9.6 weeks show that they're at 130.7 million bushels; almost 100 million bushels under last year at this time. The weekly average wheat inspection has been at an anemic 13.7 million bushels.
This is even far below the USDA export projection of 925 million bushels, as the average needed to reach that is 18.7 million bushels for the rest of the year, which will be difficult to attain.
While some say this isn't a good comparison over the very quick rate of wheat exports last year, it still is far behind what would be needed to reach projections. As fo the end of July, the USDA said outstanding export sales of wheat stood at 148 million bushels, while last year it was at 276 million bushels.
The USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report breaks down exports and export sales by where the wheat is headed and by class of wheat. Through July 30, export commitments compared to those of last year plunged by 60 percent for hard red winter wheat, 63 percent for soft red winter wheat, and 26 percent for hard red spring wheat. Export commitments were 17 percent larger for white wheat and 15 percent larger for durum wheat. Commitments for all classes of wheat were down by a huge 46 percent.
Among its largest wheat trading partners, commitments have dropped significantly; 27 percent to the Philippines, 45 percent to Japan, 48 percent to Mexico, and 87 percent to Egypt. Egypt buys only soft red winter wheat from the U.S.
Exports of wheat globally are down this year because a number of countries have significantly increased wheat production domestically, so diminishing the amount of wheat needed for its citizenry outside the countries.
Much of the recent low wheat prices has been attributed primarily to the decline in export demand for soft red winter wheat, which doesn't look to change this year.
As far as wheat inventories globally, they are expected to grow by 8 percent this year, which equals 512 million bushels. Of that, China will account for 80 percent of the wheat inventory increase.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Funding of Perennial Wheat Study
Perennial Wheat Research
While the idea of developing a perennial wheat strain is a great one, the thought of using taxpayers money to do it is outrageous.
Researchers at Michigan State University are recipients of the $1 million in federal grants (taxpayers money) to work on developing a perennial wheat strain.
There's the potential to generate huge savings for farmers if wheat didn't have to be replanted every season. The fuel and labor cost declines would be magnificent.
According to lead researcher Sieg Snapp, a perennial wheat strain would help reduce erosion problems and keep moisture in the soil longer.
Again, the idea is a great one, it should be done with private money and entrepreneurs, not taxpayer money.
Perennial Wheat Research
While the idea of developing a perennial wheat strain is a great one, the thought of using taxpayers money to do it is outrageous.
Researchers at Michigan State University are recipients of the $1 million in federal grants (taxpayers money) to work on developing a perennial wheat strain.
There's the potential to generate huge savings for farmers if wheat didn't have to be replanted every season. The fuel and labor cost declines would be magnificent.
According to lead researcher Sieg Snapp, a perennial wheat strain would help reduce erosion problems and keep moisture in the soil longer.
Again, the idea is a great one, it should be done with private money and entrepreneurs, not taxpayer money.
Perennial Wheat Research
Montana Winter Wheat Harvest Starts
Montana Winter Wheat Harvest
Reports are the winter wheat harvest in Montana has started, according to the Montana Crop Weather Report issued Monday at the Montana Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Approximately 4 percent of the state's winter wheat harvest is complete, in contrast to 2 percent during the same time period last year. This is far behind the five-year winter wheat harvest average in Montana, which usually stands at 25 percent at this time.
So far farmers are rating the Montana winter wheat crop at 41 percent good and only 36 percent fair.
Close to 30 percent of the Montana spring wheat crop is turning according to the report, in comparison to 46 percent last years at the same time. That is faring a little better, with farmers rating the spring wheat crop at 47 percent good, while 31 percent is rated as fair.
The conditons of range and pasture feed are down about five percent from last year, with 39 percent being rated as good, a decline from 44 percent last year during the same period.
Dry conditions have causes pastures to dry up.
Montana Winter Wheat Harvest
Reports are the winter wheat harvest in Montana has started, according to the Montana Crop Weather Report issued Monday at the Montana Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Approximately 4 percent of the state's winter wheat harvest is complete, in contrast to 2 percent during the same time period last year. This is far behind the five-year winter wheat harvest average in Montana, which usually stands at 25 percent at this time.
So far farmers are rating the Montana winter wheat crop at 41 percent good and only 36 percent fair.
Close to 30 percent of the Montana spring wheat crop is turning according to the report, in comparison to 46 percent last years at the same time. That is faring a little better, with farmers rating the spring wheat crop at 47 percent good, while 31 percent is rated as fair.
The conditons of range and pasture feed are down about five percent from last year, with 39 percent being rated as good, a decline from 44 percent last year during the same period.
Dry conditions have causes pastures to dry up.
Montana Winter Wheat Harvest
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
CBOT Owner Resists Wheat Restrictions
Wheat Markets
The attempt by the government to regulate and interfere with the wheat market could be another disaster in the making, as the completely foolish, misguided and clueless Democrats continue their assault on free markets.
According to Charles Carey, vice chairman of CBOT owner CME Group Inc., government restrictions on trading "are more likely to be harmful to the functioning of our markets than helpful," and he's absolutely right.
The idea that we should have some type of perfection in place so no one ever gets hurt is outrageous, socialist and fascist to the core. Short term fluctations in wheat prices will never last, and that's the illusory problem the goofy Democrats think needs to be solved.
Unbelievably, federal regulators are "seriously considering" restrictions in the wheat futures market being urged by lawmakers concerned over speculation they say has artificially inflated prices, supposedly interfering risk management by farmers and grain processors.
After a wasted year and time, a faux investigation by the investigative panel of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee found that the disconnect between the wheat futures and cash markets can mean higher prices for consumers. They say this with a straight face when corn prices and lack of planting of wheat does more to jack up the prices because of other government interference through subsidies from taxpayers dollars.
A number of senators have called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to restrict the volume of index trading in the wheat futures market on the Chicago Board of Trade, a completely ridiculous idea.
Foolishly, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler told the Senate subcommittee at a recent hearing that the agency "is seriously considering this recommendation ... (and) will continue to closely monitor the performance of the wheat futures contract."
Democrat Panel chairman Carl Levin, ignorantly said such a review "is badly needed." Several other members of the committee, representing farm states, voiced concern about the impact of market problems on wheat producers in those states.
Again, to me much of this is to hide the real culprit in wheat prices, federal subsidies of corn for the failing corn-based ethanol industry, which is pushing up prices because of less acreage used for wheat because of the artifical price increases created by the U.S. government.
But an official of the company that operates the Chicago Board of Trade, where wheat futures are traded, opposed such constraints and disputed the Senate probe's findings, as mentiond above from Charles Carey's accurate comments.
The idea of attempting to manipulate the market by the U.S. government and Democrats will fail, as the utopian idea of reducing risk is completely foolish and always fails, and the wheat and commodities markets overall will suffer.
Commodity indexes include futures contracts for delivery in different months. Commodity index traders sell financial instruments whose values rise and fall along with the value of the index on which they are located.
Commodity index traders acquire wheat futures to help offset their risk from selling the instruments to third parties. That pumps billions of dollars into the market and lifts demand and prices for wheat futures, the faulty results of the Senate investigation found.
Other related to the risk factors are also whining about the alleged discrepencies, as one person representing the American Bakers Association and the Sara Lee Corp said at the hearing, "Bakers cannot escape the impact. Today's volatility represents millions of dollars daily in undue financial risk."
What this disingenous bureaucrat doesn't say is this has always been the case, and the those that manage this risk factor are the ones who win. In the stimulous and spirit of bailing out company after company, those that can't compete are attempting to make it look like something unusual is happening, when in fact it has been the practice and way of doing business for a long time.
The one who knows about this the best is Charles Carey, vice chairman of CBOT owner CME Group Inc., and he concludes that the findings of the Senate report "are based on faulty economic analysis and a misunderstanding of basic market economics."
Just look at what the Democrats and Obama are doing to destroy America with its socialist and fascist policies, and you can easily understand how this group of politicians are among the most inexperienced and naive in American history; in both foreign and domestic policy, and they need to just shut up and let the free market work things out, which it always has done.
Wheat Markets
The attempt by the government to regulate and interfere with the wheat market could be another disaster in the making, as the completely foolish, misguided and clueless Democrats continue their assault on free markets.
According to Charles Carey, vice chairman of CBOT owner CME Group Inc., government restrictions on trading "are more likely to be harmful to the functioning of our markets than helpful," and he's absolutely right.
The idea that we should have some type of perfection in place so no one ever gets hurt is outrageous, socialist and fascist to the core. Short term fluctations in wheat prices will never last, and that's the illusory problem the goofy Democrats think needs to be solved.
Unbelievably, federal regulators are "seriously considering" restrictions in the wheat futures market being urged by lawmakers concerned over speculation they say has artificially inflated prices, supposedly interfering risk management by farmers and grain processors.
After a wasted year and time, a faux investigation by the investigative panel of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee found that the disconnect between the wheat futures and cash markets can mean higher prices for consumers. They say this with a straight face when corn prices and lack of planting of wheat does more to jack up the prices because of other government interference through subsidies from taxpayers dollars.
A number of senators have called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to restrict the volume of index trading in the wheat futures market on the Chicago Board of Trade, a completely ridiculous idea.
Foolishly, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler told the Senate subcommittee at a recent hearing that the agency "is seriously considering this recommendation ... (and) will continue to closely monitor the performance of the wheat futures contract."
Democrat Panel chairman Carl Levin, ignorantly said such a review "is badly needed." Several other members of the committee, representing farm states, voiced concern about the impact of market problems on wheat producers in those states.
Again, to me much of this is to hide the real culprit in wheat prices, federal subsidies of corn for the failing corn-based ethanol industry, which is pushing up prices because of less acreage used for wheat because of the artifical price increases created by the U.S. government.
But an official of the company that operates the Chicago Board of Trade, where wheat futures are traded, opposed such constraints and disputed the Senate probe's findings, as mentiond above from Charles Carey's accurate comments.
The idea of attempting to manipulate the market by the U.S. government and Democrats will fail, as the utopian idea of reducing risk is completely foolish and always fails, and the wheat and commodities markets overall will suffer.
Commodity indexes include futures contracts for delivery in different months. Commodity index traders sell financial instruments whose values rise and fall along with the value of the index on which they are located.
Commodity index traders acquire wheat futures to help offset their risk from selling the instruments to third parties. That pumps billions of dollars into the market and lifts demand and prices for wheat futures, the faulty results of the Senate investigation found.
Other related to the risk factors are also whining about the alleged discrepencies, as one person representing the American Bakers Association and the Sara Lee Corp said at the hearing, "Bakers cannot escape the impact. Today's volatility represents millions of dollars daily in undue financial risk."
What this disingenous bureaucrat doesn't say is this has always been the case, and the those that manage this risk factor are the ones who win. In the stimulous and spirit of bailing out company after company, those that can't compete are attempting to make it look like something unusual is happening, when in fact it has been the practice and way of doing business for a long time.
The one who knows about this the best is Charles Carey, vice chairman of CBOT owner CME Group Inc., and he concludes that the findings of the Senate report "are based on faulty economic analysis and a misunderstanding of basic market economics."
Just look at what the Democrats and Obama are doing to destroy America with its socialist and fascist policies, and you can easily understand how this group of politicians are among the most inexperienced and naive in American history; in both foreign and domestic policy, and they need to just shut up and let the free market work things out, which it always has done.
Wheat Markets
Friday, July 17, 2009
Commercial Biotech Modified Wheat
Biotech Modified Wheat
There can be no doubt that whether opposition to modified wheat like it or not, there will be commercialization sometime in the near future, as the alternative could never be acceptable.
Growing demand for wheat products and other foodstuffs will continue for some time, as emerging markets and growing middle classes increase their food consumption.
A lot of U.S. farmers have been positive about renewed efforts by biotech crop leader Monsanto Co to genetically modified wheat, but convincing world markets to embrace genetic alteration of the key food crop remains a big challenge to overcome.
Monsanto added fuel to a debate over biotech wheat on Tuesday when it announced it was buying WestBred LLC, a wheat germplasm specialist as a platform to develop higher-yielding biotech wheat that would be more tolerant of drought and require less nitrogen.
Along with Monsanto, rival seed technology companies such as Syngenta AG, BASF and Dow AgroSciences, a unit of Dow Chemical Co, are pouring resources into wheat development. Some companies are focusing on transgenic alterations using DNA from other species and some are manipulating genes already found in wheat.
Currently there is no biotech wheat grown on a commercial-scale anywhere in the world due to opposition from consumers and food industry players.
Most notably, Japan, one of the world's largest importers of wheat and a leading critic of past efforts to introduce genetically altered wheat, remains a steadfast opponent. Many European countries also continue to resist genetically modified crops.
Japan, which imports around 5.5 million tons of wheat each year, including about 3 million tons from the United States, is starting to acknowledge that there might be a valid argument for biotech wheat. But much work remains to be done before full acceptance, Tracy said.
U.S. Wheat is still laboring to get Japan and other countries to establish regulatory systems and tolerance levels that would allow for continued imports if biotech wheat is commercialized, he said.
Some U.S. farm groups also remain cautious of biotech wheat. They say conventional breeding can bring many of the same benefits without negative market consequences.
These critics also say biotech wheat work is aimed more at improving profits at corporations such as Monsanto than at helping farmers.
Quite a few consumer and environmental groups have concerns over introducing genes from other species into wheat could make it harmful for humans, and say it would be difficult to keep biotech wheat segregated from conventional wheat seed and products.
Monsanto, a global leader in biotech corn and soybeans, backed away from commercializing a herbicide-tolerant wheat five years ago as foreign buyers threatened boycotts.
Opponents say a biotech wheat introduction could still deal a significant blow to U.S. markets, recalling how U.S. corn lost European buyers when genetically modified corn was brought to the market.
But biotech wheat supporters say the global wheat crop needs a technological boost. They note that over the last few years, farmers have reduced wheat acreage in favor of more-profitable, easier-to-grow crops such as corn and soybeans.
They also point to fears mount about global food shortages and a rapid rise in world population. Just last year, shortages drove wheat prices to record highs, and prices remain historically high this year despite ample supplies.
Those factors have prompted corporations and researchers in the United States and Australia to increase development efforts in wheat.
Some farmer groups support commercialization of biotech varieties, saying they will have several years to address buyer fears before any biotech wheat is commercialized.
Either way, biotech modified wheat should go commercial in about 5 years if not sooner, as global conditions will force it upon us.
Biotech Modified Wheat
There can be no doubt that whether opposition to modified wheat like it or not, there will be commercialization sometime in the near future, as the alternative could never be acceptable.
Growing demand for wheat products and other foodstuffs will continue for some time, as emerging markets and growing middle classes increase their food consumption.
A lot of U.S. farmers have been positive about renewed efforts by biotech crop leader Monsanto Co to genetically modified wheat, but convincing world markets to embrace genetic alteration of the key food crop remains a big challenge to overcome.
Monsanto added fuel to a debate over biotech wheat on Tuesday when it announced it was buying WestBred LLC, a wheat germplasm specialist as a platform to develop higher-yielding biotech wheat that would be more tolerant of drought and require less nitrogen.
Along with Monsanto, rival seed technology companies such as Syngenta AG, BASF and Dow AgroSciences, a unit of Dow Chemical Co, are pouring resources into wheat development. Some companies are focusing on transgenic alterations using DNA from other species and some are manipulating genes already found in wheat.
Currently there is no biotech wheat grown on a commercial-scale anywhere in the world due to opposition from consumers and food industry players.
Most notably, Japan, one of the world's largest importers of wheat and a leading critic of past efforts to introduce genetically altered wheat, remains a steadfast opponent. Many European countries also continue to resist genetically modified crops.
Japan, which imports around 5.5 million tons of wheat each year, including about 3 million tons from the United States, is starting to acknowledge that there might be a valid argument for biotech wheat. But much work remains to be done before full acceptance, Tracy said.
U.S. Wheat is still laboring to get Japan and other countries to establish regulatory systems and tolerance levels that would allow for continued imports if biotech wheat is commercialized, he said.
Some U.S. farm groups also remain cautious of biotech wheat. They say conventional breeding can bring many of the same benefits without negative market consequences.
These critics also say biotech wheat work is aimed more at improving profits at corporations such as Monsanto than at helping farmers.
Quite a few consumer and environmental groups have concerns over introducing genes from other species into wheat could make it harmful for humans, and say it would be difficult to keep biotech wheat segregated from conventional wheat seed and products.
Monsanto, a global leader in biotech corn and soybeans, backed away from commercializing a herbicide-tolerant wheat five years ago as foreign buyers threatened boycotts.
Opponents say a biotech wheat introduction could still deal a significant blow to U.S. markets, recalling how U.S. corn lost European buyers when genetically modified corn was brought to the market.
But biotech wheat supporters say the global wheat crop needs a technological boost. They note that over the last few years, farmers have reduced wheat acreage in favor of more-profitable, easier-to-grow crops such as corn and soybeans.
They also point to fears mount about global food shortages and a rapid rise in world population. Just last year, shortages drove wheat prices to record highs, and prices remain historically high this year despite ample supplies.
Those factors have prompted corporations and researchers in the United States and Australia to increase development efforts in wheat.
Some farmer groups support commercialization of biotech varieties, saying they will have several years to address buyer fears before any biotech wheat is commercialized.
Either way, biotech modified wheat should go commercial in about 5 years if not sooner, as global conditions will force it upon us.
Biotech Modified Wheat
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Monsanto Looking to wheat
Monsanto Looking to wheat to drive share prices up
Looking for more ways to increase their share price, Monsanto is looking to wheat as a significant means of doing that, and recent aquisition of WestBred LLC is the first significant step in that direction, although it could take a decade before the investment pays off.
Knowing it needs a way to expand market share in wheat, Monsanto a Monsanto analyst, citing expectations that the company's $45 million acquisition of WestBred LLC won't add to earnings until 2016, and will add less than a dime a share by 2025.
Privately held WestBred, with offices in Montana, specializes in wheat germplasm, the genetic material of a seed.
Monsanto said about the investment that it will strengthen the future growth of Monsanto's seeds and traits platform; and allow farmers to benefit from the company's experience in drought-, disease- and pest-tolerance innovations.
This action by Monsanto, the world's biggest provider of seeds, signifies the company's re-entry to the wheat market, but will only increase earnings several years down the road at best.
Assuming Monsanto has a 20 percent share of the certified seed market by 2025, estimates are wheat could only add between 7 cents and 9 cents a share to earnings a share by 2025.
"Clearly, Monsanto needs to find ways to drive significant market share gains, wheat platform should not be accretive to earnings until 2016 or later."
Managing expectations, Monsanto is calling the acquisition a long-term investment that won't add to earnings until the middle or latter part of the next decade.
Monsanto Looking to wheat to drive share prices up
Looking for more ways to increase their share price, Monsanto is looking to wheat as a significant means of doing that, and recent aquisition of WestBred LLC is the first significant step in that direction, although it could take a decade before the investment pays off.
Knowing it needs a way to expand market share in wheat, Monsanto a Monsanto analyst, citing expectations that the company's $45 million acquisition of WestBred LLC won't add to earnings until 2016, and will add less than a dime a share by 2025.
Privately held WestBred, with offices in Montana, specializes in wheat germplasm, the genetic material of a seed.
Monsanto said about the investment that it will strengthen the future growth of Monsanto's seeds and traits platform; and allow farmers to benefit from the company's experience in drought-, disease- and pest-tolerance innovations.
This action by Monsanto, the world's biggest provider of seeds, signifies the company's re-entry to the wheat market, but will only increase earnings several years down the road at best.
Assuming Monsanto has a 20 percent share of the certified seed market by 2025, estimates are wheat could only add between 7 cents and 9 cents a share to earnings a share by 2025.
"Clearly, Monsanto needs to find ways to drive significant market share gains, wheat platform should not be accretive to earnings until 2016 or later."
Managing expectations, Monsanto is calling the acquisition a long-term investment that won't add to earnings until the middle or latter part of the next decade.
Monsanto Looking to wheat to drive share prices up
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
India's Wheat Exports Limited by High Domestic Prices
India wheat exports down in fiscal year
In the midst of high local prices, projections are it will limit India's wheat and wheat product exports in the fiscal year ending March 2010, although the country has eased an earlier ban on exports this month to allow limited shipments.
On July 3, the federal government allowed three state-run firms - MMTC, STC and PEC - to export 300,000 tons each of wheat by March 31, 2010. In addition, private companies were allowed to export another 650,000 tons in wheat products, also by the same date.
But that is unlikely to lead to a surge exports.
"International prices are around $195 to $198/ton and Indian wheat costs around $232/ton," said Veena Sharma, secretary of Roller Flour Millers Federation (RFMF) of India.
She said exports are feasible only if international prices rise in the coming months.
"Unless there is a government subsidy of $30-$40/ton, (wheat exports are) not feasible," said Ajay Goyal, president of Maharashtra Roller Flour Millers Association (MRFMA).
However, the formal government order allowing the exports made it clear that "no subsidy will be given" to exporters.
India's federal government had imposed a ban on exports of wheat and wheat products in December 2007 to help curb inflation.
Since then, domestic wheat stocks have reached comfortable levels following two bumper crops and on carryover stocks from previous imports.
Even if some exports take place now, those could mainly be to neighboring countries, traders said.
"We may have to look to export to countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives to save on freight costs," said a state-run trading firm official, who did not want to be identified.
However, industry officials ruled out the possibility of wheat exports to Pakistan because there is no supply shortage there.
Meanwhile, state procurement of wheat has been on the rise following higher support prices.
Farmers sold more wheat to government agencies, rather than to private companies, as the state-fixed price of 10,800 rupees ($223)/ton was attractive, and relatively higher than even global prices, traders said.
Latest government data showed local wheat purchases by government agencies have already touched a record 25.06 million tons since purchases started in April, and more was trickling into state granaries.
In its annual budget announcement Monday, the government said it would step up subsidized sale of grains to poor consumers in the coming months.
With the chance of wheat exports looking slim, industry officials were more hopeful about exports of wheat products such as flour and semolina.
"Although there is not so much of demand for wheat products in the global market now, there could be some demand coming from the Middle East," said A N Gupta, chairman of Wheat Products Promotion Society of India.
He said demand for value-added wheat products from India is likely to be much more than the demand for the grain itself in global markets.
India wheat exports down in fiscal year
In the midst of high local prices, projections are it will limit India's wheat and wheat product exports in the fiscal year ending March 2010, although the country has eased an earlier ban on exports this month to allow limited shipments.
On July 3, the federal government allowed three state-run firms - MMTC, STC and PEC - to export 300,000 tons each of wheat by March 31, 2010. In addition, private companies were allowed to export another 650,000 tons in wheat products, also by the same date.
But that is unlikely to lead to a surge exports.
"International prices are around $195 to $198/ton and Indian wheat costs around $232/ton," said Veena Sharma, secretary of Roller Flour Millers Federation (RFMF) of India.
She said exports are feasible only if international prices rise in the coming months.
"Unless there is a government subsidy of $30-$40/ton, (wheat exports are) not feasible," said Ajay Goyal, president of Maharashtra Roller Flour Millers Association (MRFMA).
However, the formal government order allowing the exports made it clear that "no subsidy will be given" to exporters.
India's federal government had imposed a ban on exports of wheat and wheat products in December 2007 to help curb inflation.
Since then, domestic wheat stocks have reached comfortable levels following two bumper crops and on carryover stocks from previous imports.
Even if some exports take place now, those could mainly be to neighboring countries, traders said.
"We may have to look to export to countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives to save on freight costs," said a state-run trading firm official, who did not want to be identified.
However, industry officials ruled out the possibility of wheat exports to Pakistan because there is no supply shortage there.
Meanwhile, state procurement of wheat has been on the rise following higher support prices.
Farmers sold more wheat to government agencies, rather than to private companies, as the state-fixed price of 10,800 rupees ($223)/ton was attractive, and relatively higher than even global prices, traders said.
Latest government data showed local wheat purchases by government agencies have already touched a record 25.06 million tons since purchases started in April, and more was trickling into state granaries.
In its annual budget announcement Monday, the government said it would step up subsidized sale of grains to poor consumers in the coming months.
With the chance of wheat exports looking slim, industry officials were more hopeful about exports of wheat products such as flour and semolina.
"Although there is not so much of demand for wheat products in the global market now, there could be some demand coming from the Middle East," said A N Gupta, chairman of Wheat Products Promotion Society of India.
He said demand for value-added wheat products from India is likely to be much more than the demand for the grain itself in global markets.
India wheat exports down in fiscal year
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Wheat News | Wheat Inventories in India to Remain Huge
Wheat
Wheat inventories in India are likely to remain large given the expectation of another bumper crop this year and limited export opportunities, said the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nation in its latest report.
Inventory in India, another major producer and stockholder, is forecast to remain unchanged at a five-year high of 17.8 million tonnes. But another bumper year for wheat in 2010 may increase the inventory further, said the report. The forecast assumes significance as the country has not opened wheat for exports despite excessive supplies in the domestic market.
Since, the United Progressive Alliance government has been formed without any alliance pressure and most importantly, the inflation remains under control, trade sources estimate the government may allow wheat exports in near future primarily because of global trade deficit.
FAO’s first forecast for wheat trade in 2009-10 stands at 114 million tonnes, down as much as 8 per cent, or 10 million tonnes from the estimated 2008-09 record volume.
Wheat export was suspended in May 2007 to control inflation that shot up over 13 per cent. The government also suspended futures trading in wheat due to the fear of price rise on traders’ speculation.
Meanwhile, FAO has estimated India’s wheat production to decline marginally by one per cent to 77.6 million tonnes in 2009 on favourable climatic condition throughout the season.
The specialised agency of the United Nations, which leads international efforts to defeat hunger, has forecast global wheat output to decline by 4 per cent to 655.8 million tonnes in 2009 compared with 684.6 million tonnes in the previous year.
The agency estimates total course grains’ output to remain rangebound at 37.8 million tonnes this calendar year compared with 38 million tonnes in the last year.
But, the global coarse grains production is likely to decline by 4 per cent at 1,098.5 million tonnes this year compared with 1,142.3 million tonnes in the previous year.
The 2008 paddy season has just been completed with the harvesting of secondary crops in Asia. Boosted by excellent results of these crops, global paddy production is now estimated at 689 million tonnes, equivalent to 460 million tonnes of milled rice, well above earlier expectations and 4.3 per cent more than in 2007.
But the sector’s attention is now turning to the 2009 season, which is already well advanced in all but the critically important south-eastern Asian region, where farmers are awaiting the imminent arrival of the monsoon rains to plant their crops.
Preliminary information on plantings and crop development over the 2009 season has been favourable. As a result and assuming a normal rainfall pattern in Asia in the coming months, world production in 2009 could gain a further 1 per cent and reach 696 million tonnes (465 million tonnes, milled equivalent), FAO said.
The relatively moderate increase expected in 2009 reflects less attractive prospects for producer returns. However, in spite of financial constraints, many governments have maintained their support to the sector through input subsidies, investment programmes and direct price incentives, which, barring any major setback, is likely to sustain production growth.
Trade sources estimate India’s rice output to remain rangebound at 147 million tons in 2009 provided monsoon arrives in time and distributed evenly.
Wheat
Wheat inventories in India are likely to remain large given the expectation of another bumper crop this year and limited export opportunities, said the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nation in its latest report.
Inventory in India, another major producer and stockholder, is forecast to remain unchanged at a five-year high of 17.8 million tonnes. But another bumper year for wheat in 2010 may increase the inventory further, said the report. The forecast assumes significance as the country has not opened wheat for exports despite excessive supplies in the domestic market.
Since, the United Progressive Alliance government has been formed without any alliance pressure and most importantly, the inflation remains under control, trade sources estimate the government may allow wheat exports in near future primarily because of global trade deficit.
FAO’s first forecast for wheat trade in 2009-10 stands at 114 million tonnes, down as much as 8 per cent, or 10 million tonnes from the estimated 2008-09 record volume.
Wheat export was suspended in May 2007 to control inflation that shot up over 13 per cent. The government also suspended futures trading in wheat due to the fear of price rise on traders’ speculation.
Meanwhile, FAO has estimated India’s wheat production to decline marginally by one per cent to 77.6 million tonnes in 2009 on favourable climatic condition throughout the season.
The specialised agency of the United Nations, which leads international efforts to defeat hunger, has forecast global wheat output to decline by 4 per cent to 655.8 million tonnes in 2009 compared with 684.6 million tonnes in the previous year.
The agency estimates total course grains’ output to remain rangebound at 37.8 million tonnes this calendar year compared with 38 million tonnes in the last year.
But, the global coarse grains production is likely to decline by 4 per cent at 1,098.5 million tonnes this year compared with 1,142.3 million tonnes in the previous year.
The 2008 paddy season has just been completed with the harvesting of secondary crops in Asia. Boosted by excellent results of these crops, global paddy production is now estimated at 689 million tonnes, equivalent to 460 million tonnes of milled rice, well above earlier expectations and 4.3 per cent more than in 2007.
But the sector’s attention is now turning to the 2009 season, which is already well advanced in all but the critically important south-eastern Asian region, where farmers are awaiting the imminent arrival of the monsoon rains to plant their crops.
Preliminary information on plantings and crop development over the 2009 season has been favourable. As a result and assuming a normal rainfall pattern in Asia in the coming months, world production in 2009 could gain a further 1 per cent and reach 696 million tonnes (465 million tonnes, milled equivalent), FAO said.
The relatively moderate increase expected in 2009 reflects less attractive prospects for producer returns. However, in spite of financial constraints, many governments have maintained their support to the sector through input subsidies, investment programmes and direct price incentives, which, barring any major setback, is likely to sustain production growth.
Trade sources estimate India’s rice output to remain rangebound at 147 million tons in 2009 provided monsoon arrives in time and distributed evenly.
Wheat
Friday, January 16, 2009
Wheat Prices Will Fall as Demand Dries Up
Some traders are looking for any tidbit of information to keep the wheat prices up, but I don't think they can hold for too long.
Much of the argument for wheat prices holding is the dry weather in a couple regions in South America.
But with prices higher now than the fundamentals warrant, it's hard to believe people seriously think losing a little bit of the global crop will really make much difference. There's so much wheat available that it would take something of epic proportions to keep prices up.
Even add in the possibility that the cold front in the U.S. may damage some wheat crop if there isn't any snow cover, and that still doesn't change the fact of the huge global supply available.
Most of what's been driving the prices up over the last couple months has been the re-entry of some funds into the market, along with the soybean rally. Over the last 6 weeks wheat futures have risen approximately 25 percent.
With demand so low, I don't see that being able to continue in any sustainable way in the months ahead.
The one unknown is when the U.S. dollar will start collapsing under the weight of the huge amounts of money being used to stimulate the U.S. economy. That would of course make exporting wheat much cheaper, and could increase sales.
The problem is there's no way of knowing how long that will take, so it can only be watched for, not counted on, as far as timing goes. When it does happen though, it will be a boon to commodity producers in the U.S.
Concerning demand, the USDA on Monday projected the ending stocks for U.S. wheat in 2008 - 2009 stand at 655 million bushels, an increase of 32 million from December's estimates. With nowhere to really send that wheat, as demand is so soft and wheat so plentiful, it will stay in storage until there's someone to sell it to.
Even that will continue to be a challenge as for the same time period, wheat consumption accroding to the USDA estimates, are being lowered.
Livestock markets have no interest at this time in buying either, as they're struggling as much as anyone else, with exports down and profits under pressure. Cost inputs and lower priced global wheat remains major factors in these decisions.
While there's nothing that can be done about it now, the real problem stems from last years' prices, where everything went right for U.S. wheat farmers, and supply was down globally. Farmers responded predictably by putting more wheat in the ground for this season, contributing in part to the current glut.
This wasn't too smart, as the chances of having two years in a row like that are almost nil, and they knew foreign farmers would respond the same at lower costs. Farmers, as well as anybody in business must learn if they missed it this time around, there's not much guarantee they hit it the next.
It's expected that spring wheat acreage planted this year will drop, especially if prices don't come back, which they are highly unlikely to do.
Much of the argument for wheat prices holding is the dry weather in a couple regions in South America.
But with prices higher now than the fundamentals warrant, it's hard to believe people seriously think losing a little bit of the global crop will really make much difference. There's so much wheat available that it would take something of epic proportions to keep prices up.
Even add in the possibility that the cold front in the U.S. may damage some wheat crop if there isn't any snow cover, and that still doesn't change the fact of the huge global supply available.
Most of what's been driving the prices up over the last couple months has been the re-entry of some funds into the market, along with the soybean rally. Over the last 6 weeks wheat futures have risen approximately 25 percent.
With demand so low, I don't see that being able to continue in any sustainable way in the months ahead.
The one unknown is when the U.S. dollar will start collapsing under the weight of the huge amounts of money being used to stimulate the U.S. economy. That would of course make exporting wheat much cheaper, and could increase sales.
The problem is there's no way of knowing how long that will take, so it can only be watched for, not counted on, as far as timing goes. When it does happen though, it will be a boon to commodity producers in the U.S.
Concerning demand, the USDA on Monday projected the ending stocks for U.S. wheat in 2008 - 2009 stand at 655 million bushels, an increase of 32 million from December's estimates. With nowhere to really send that wheat, as demand is so soft and wheat so plentiful, it will stay in storage until there's someone to sell it to.
Even that will continue to be a challenge as for the same time period, wheat consumption accroding to the USDA estimates, are being lowered.
Livestock markets have no interest at this time in buying either, as they're struggling as much as anyone else, with exports down and profits under pressure. Cost inputs and lower priced global wheat remains major factors in these decisions.
While there's nothing that can be done about it now, the real problem stems from last years' prices, where everything went right for U.S. wheat farmers, and supply was down globally. Farmers responded predictably by putting more wheat in the ground for this season, contributing in part to the current glut.
This wasn't too smart, as the chances of having two years in a row like that are almost nil, and they knew foreign farmers would respond the same at lower costs. Farmers, as well as anybody in business must learn if they missed it this time around, there's not much guarantee they hit it the next.
It's expected that spring wheat acreage planted this year will drop, especially if prices don't come back, which they are highly unlikely to do.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
DJ US Wheat Review: Ends Up Amid Talk About Frigid Weather
CHICAGO, Jan 14, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
U.S. wheat futures settled higher Wednesday in choppy trading amid worries about the potential for plant damage from a deep freeze in the U.S.
Chicago Board of Trade March wheat futures gained 3 1/2 cents to $5.74 1/4 per bushel. Kansas City Board of Trade March wheat edged up 3 cents to $6.00, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange March wheat added 4 3/4 cents to $6.41 3/4.
The markets seemed to find support from fears that subzero temperatures are threatening winter wheat that does not have adequate snow cover, traders said. Soft red winter wheat in portions of southern Illinois appears to be most at risk for damage from winterkill, which reduces yields, they said.
Still, it's difficult to get too bulled up about the weather because the crop doesn't grow during the winter, an analyst said. Farmers can't determine the full extent of winterkill damage until plants break dormancy in spring.
"In reality, you're not going to get the market to bite off on that until you get into April," an analyst said about winterkill fears.
Trading was thin and choppy for much of the day session, so it's hard to read too much into the activity, a CBOT floor trader said. Commodity funds bought an estimated 1,000 contracts.
CBOT March wheat traded in a range of $5.62 to $5.80 in open outcry trading. CBOT March wheat has support at its 40-day moving average around $5.57 1/2, an analyst said.
The firm close marked the second consecutive day of gains for wheat following sharp losses Monday. CBOT wheat closed near limit down Monday amid spillover pressure from limit-down corn and soybeans.
Kansas City Board of Trade
KCBT wheat ended higher after trading both sides with the other markets. March wheat traded in a range of $5.89 1/2 to $6.07 1/2.
U.S. wheat continues to be uncompetitive on the world export market because prices are too high, traders said. The U.S. has faced tough competition lately from countries the Black Sea region, such as Russia.
Egypt's state-owned General Authority for Supply Commodities, or GASC, said Wednesday it is tendering to buy 55,000-60,000 tons of wheat for shipment Feb. 6-20 on a free-on-board basis. Egypt on Tuesday bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat in a tender.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange
MGE wheat ended higher as the markets continued to recover from Monday's slide, a trader said. There was a lack of fresh news concerning spring wheat, traded at the MGE, he said.
"If you got some export sales, it's bullish," an analyst said. "Routine business to Japan doesn't count."
Japan said Tuesday it was seeking 157,000 tons of wheat, including 90,000 tons from the U.S., in a tender to be concluded Thursday. The tender shouldn't impact the markets because it is routine, traders said.
March wheat traded in a range of $6.33 to $6.48. That was within Tuesday's range, which spanned from $6.24 1/2 to $6.54 1/4.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780; tom.polansek@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
U.S. wheat futures settled higher Wednesday in choppy trading amid worries about the potential for plant damage from a deep freeze in the U.S.
Chicago Board of Trade March wheat futures gained 3 1/2 cents to $5.74 1/4 per bushel. Kansas City Board of Trade March wheat edged up 3 cents to $6.00, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange March wheat added 4 3/4 cents to $6.41 3/4.
The markets seemed to find support from fears that subzero temperatures are threatening winter wheat that does not have adequate snow cover, traders said. Soft red winter wheat in portions of southern Illinois appears to be most at risk for damage from winterkill, which reduces yields, they said.
Still, it's difficult to get too bulled up about the weather because the crop doesn't grow during the winter, an analyst said. Farmers can't determine the full extent of winterkill damage until plants break dormancy in spring.
"In reality, you're not going to get the market to bite off on that until you get into April," an analyst said about winterkill fears.
Trading was thin and choppy for much of the day session, so it's hard to read too much into the activity, a CBOT floor trader said. Commodity funds bought an estimated 1,000 contracts.
CBOT March wheat traded in a range of $5.62 to $5.80 in open outcry trading. CBOT March wheat has support at its 40-day moving average around $5.57 1/2, an analyst said.
The firm close marked the second consecutive day of gains for wheat following sharp losses Monday. CBOT wheat closed near limit down Monday amid spillover pressure from limit-down corn and soybeans.
Kansas City Board of Trade
KCBT wheat ended higher after trading both sides with the other markets. March wheat traded in a range of $5.89 1/2 to $6.07 1/2.
U.S. wheat continues to be uncompetitive on the world export market because prices are too high, traders said. The U.S. has faced tough competition lately from countries the Black Sea region, such as Russia.
Egypt's state-owned General Authority for Supply Commodities, or GASC, said Wednesday it is tendering to buy 55,000-60,000 tons of wheat for shipment Feb. 6-20 on a free-on-board basis. Egypt on Tuesday bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat in a tender.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange
MGE wheat ended higher as the markets continued to recover from Monday's slide, a trader said. There was a lack of fresh news concerning spring wheat, traded at the MGE, he said.
"If you got some export sales, it's bullish," an analyst said. "Routine business to Japan doesn't count."
Japan said Tuesday it was seeking 157,000 tons of wheat, including 90,000 tons from the U.S., in a tender to be concluded Thursday. The tender shouldn't impact the markets because it is routine, traders said.
March wheat traded in a range of $6.33 to $6.48. That was within Tuesday's range, which spanned from $6.24 1/2 to $6.54 1/4.
-By Tom Polansek, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5780; tom.polansek@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Wheat Prices Fall to Exchange Limit on Rising Supply
While wheat didn't revise estimates near as much as corn, global projections still rose 0.7 percent to 148.4 million metric tons by the close of the marketing year on May 31, according to the USDA.
Estimates are there will be a surplus of U.S. wheat of 655 million bushels - an increase of 5.1 percent - by May 31. That will be over double the 306 million bushels available last year.
December wheat inventories in the U.S. increased by 26 percent to 1.422 billion bushels on December 1, a 26 percent increase over last year's 1.132 billon bushels.
Wheat futures for March delivery dropped 59.75 cents, or 9.5 percent, to $5.6975. Earlier in the session it dropped to its 60 cents limit.
From September to December, farmers planted 42.098 million acres, down from the 46.281 acres in 2007.
Estimates are there will be a surplus of U.S. wheat of 655 million bushels - an increase of 5.1 percent - by May 31. That will be over double the 306 million bushels available last year.
December wheat inventories in the U.S. increased by 26 percent to 1.422 billion bushels on December 1, a 26 percent increase over last year's 1.132 billon bushels.
Wheat futures for March delivery dropped 59.75 cents, or 9.5 percent, to $5.6975. Earlier in the session it dropped to its 60 cents limit.
From September to December, farmers planted 42.098 million acres, down from the 46.281 acres in 2007.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Wheat Prices Slightly Up on Dry Weather, Investment Funds
Although wheat was able to post gains of about 1 percent, primarily on the dry weather pattern in South America, overall poor demand still weighs on upward movement, and should cause the grain to fall.
Another help for prices this week were some investment funds reentering the commodities market.
Global wheat supplies are abundant this year, and most are less expensive than American wheat, which should continue to put downward pressure on the price.
For the week, U.S. wheat exports plunged from the expected 300,000 to 400,000 tons, to only 41,800 tons.
Unless the number of acres planted for wheat goes down significantly, wheat prices could fall to lows as spring breaks in.
If weather continues to be dry in South America, it could help the prices hold for a little longer.
Another help for prices this week were some investment funds reentering the commodities market.
Global wheat supplies are abundant this year, and most are less expensive than American wheat, which should continue to put downward pressure on the price.
For the week, U.S. wheat exports plunged from the expected 300,000 to 400,000 tons, to only 41,800 tons.
Unless the number of acres planted for wheat goes down significantly, wheat prices could fall to lows as spring breaks in.
If weather continues to be dry in South America, it could help the prices hold for a little longer.
Friday, December 26, 2008
DJ US Export Sales: Commodity Highlights - Dec 26
Kansas City, Dec 26, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- USDA Thursday released the following export highlights in its Export Sales report for week ended Dec 18.
Wheat: Net sales of 253,600 metric tons were down 3 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (58,600 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Taiwan (56,000 MT), Japan (53,700 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT, including 30,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Yemen (28,000 MT), and South Korea (23,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (50,800 MT) and Spain (40,000 MT). Exports of 290,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 30 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (96,900 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Japan (46,500 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT), Morocco (19,600 MT), and Colombia (15,400 MT).
Corn: Net sales of 551,400 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (263,900 MT), Taiwan (90,500 MT, including 79,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (81,000 MT), Venezuela (80,000 MT), Guatemala (22,400 MT), and Syria (18,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for South Korea (24,600 MT), Egypt (16,300 MT), unknown destinations (12,000 MT), and Colombia (5,800 MT). Exports of 831,300 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (289,200 MT), Mexico (119,000 MT), Taiwan (117,200 MT), South Korea (114,300 MT), Colombia (69,100 MT), Canada (28,900 MT), and Egypt (24,100 MT).
Barley: There were no sales reported during the week. Exports of 5,600 MT were for Japan (4,900 MT) and Mexico (700 MT).
Sorghum: Net sales of 88,900 MT were for Mexico. Exports of 12,800 MT were for Mexico (12,700 MT) and Canada (100 MT).
Rice: Net sales of 23,300 MT were down 77 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (20,000 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Jordan (600 MT), and the Bahamas (200 MT). Decreases were for Japan (600 MT). Exports of 61,800 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Costa Rica (33,000 MT), Mexico (16,500 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), Honduras (2,500 MT), South Korea (2,000 MT), Jordan (1,900 MT), and New Guinea (1,400 MT).
Soybeans: Net sales of 584,800 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (374,400 MT, including 167,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (129,800 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (114,500 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), and Taiwan (59,600 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from China), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (232,000 MT) and Morocco (23,800 MT). Net sales of 6,100 MT for 2009/10 delivery were for Japan. Exports of 951,500 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (609,200 MT), the Netherlands (129,800 MT), Japan (57,000 MT), Mexico (39,900 MT), Morocco (31,200 MT), Israel (23,300 MT), and Taiwan (23,000 MT).
Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 145,700 MT were up two and three-tenths times from the previous week and nearly two and two-fifths times from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (33,300 MT), Venezuela (23,000 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (16,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (15,700 MT), and Guatemala (11,900 MT). Exports of 229,700 MT were up 77 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (56,200 MT), Mexico (43,600 MT), Ecuador (27,400 MT), Canada (23,300 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT), and the Dominican Republic (16,300 MT).
Soybean Oil: Net sales of 5,400 MT were mainly for Canada (2,200 MT), Mexico (2,000 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), the Dominican Republic (300 MT), and Guatemala (200 MT). Decreases were for Saudi Arabia (100 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily Mexico (2,600 MT), Costa Rica (1,500 MT), El Salvador (800 MT), Canada (700 MT), Barbados (700 MT), and Nicaragua (600 MT).
Cotton: Net Upland sales of 118,900 running bales were up 52 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Turkey (26,700 RB), Morocco (17,100 RB), Indonesia (16,400 RB), China (13,700 RB), Bangladesh (10,200 RB), and Malaysia (9,700 RB), were partially offset by decreases for Pakistan (7,700 RB), El Salvador (1,900 RB), and unknown destinations (1,800 RB). Net sales of 1,000 RB for delivery in 2009/10 were for South Korea. Exports of 210,700 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (54,600 RB), Turkey (47,700 RB), Vietnam (29,500 RB), Mexico (12,600 RB), and Thailand (10,400 RB). Net American Pima Sales of 100 RB resulted as increases for Indonesia (600 RB), Thailand (400 RB), and Japan (400 RB), were partially offset by decreases for China (1,300 RB). Exports of 400 RB were for India.
Hides and Skins: Net sales of 689,400 pieces were up 7 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide sales of 719,500 pieces were primarily for China (352,900 pieces), South Korea (142,700 pieces), Taiwan (118,700 pieces), Mexico (30,300 pieces), and Japan (25,500 pieces). Exports of 455,700 pieces were up 12 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide exports of 443,400 pieces were primarily to China (224,300 pieces), South Korea (77,900 pieces), Thailand (39,500 pieces), Taiwan (34,800 pieces), and Mexico (27,100 pieces).
Net sales of 81,100 wet blues were down 9 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were mainly for Thailand (52,300 unsplit), Taiwan (28,400 unsplit), China (4,800 unsplit), Mexico (2,400 grain splits), and Hong Kong (1,800 unsplit). Exports of 78,800 hides were up 3 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (35,600 unsplit), Hong Kong (16,600 unsplit), Italy (14,700 unsplit), and Mexico (4,900 grain splits). Net sales of splits totaling 419,200 pounds were primarily for China (405,000 pounds). Exports of 128,200 pounds were down 63 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was China.
Beef: Net sales reductions of 6,200 MT resulted as increases for Mexico (1,900 MT), Canada (800 MT), and the Philippines (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for South Korea (7,100 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), Japan (600 MT), and Russia (400 MT). Net Sales of 13,000 MT for delivery in 2009 were primarily for South Korea (6,400 MT, switched from marketing year 2008), Vietnam (2,400 MT, including 900 MT switched from marketing year 2008), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Japan (1,100 MT, including 400 MT switched from marketing year 2008). Exports of 8,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (3,900 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), Japan (800 MT), South Korea (600 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT).
December 26, 2008
FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA
SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS
Reported Under the Daily Reporting System
For Period Ending December 18, 2008
Commodity Destination Quantity (MT) Marketing
SOYBEANS 1/ CHINA 116,000 2008/09
1/ Export sales.
-By Valena Henderson; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5171;
csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-26-08 0832ET
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Wheat: Net sales of 253,600 metric tons were down 3 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (58,600 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Taiwan (56,000 MT), Japan (53,700 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT, including 30,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Yemen (28,000 MT), and South Korea (23,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (50,800 MT) and Spain (40,000 MT). Exports of 290,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 30 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (96,900 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Japan (46,500 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT), Morocco (19,600 MT), and Colombia (15,400 MT).
Corn: Net sales of 551,400 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (263,900 MT), Taiwan (90,500 MT, including 79,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (81,000 MT), Venezuela (80,000 MT), Guatemala (22,400 MT), and Syria (18,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for South Korea (24,600 MT), Egypt (16,300 MT), unknown destinations (12,000 MT), and Colombia (5,800 MT). Exports of 831,300 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (289,200 MT), Mexico (119,000 MT), Taiwan (117,200 MT), South Korea (114,300 MT), Colombia (69,100 MT), Canada (28,900 MT), and Egypt (24,100 MT).
Barley: There were no sales reported during the week. Exports of 5,600 MT were for Japan (4,900 MT) and Mexico (700 MT).
Sorghum: Net sales of 88,900 MT were for Mexico. Exports of 12,800 MT were for Mexico (12,700 MT) and Canada (100 MT).
Rice: Net sales of 23,300 MT were down 77 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (20,000 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Jordan (600 MT), and the Bahamas (200 MT). Decreases were for Japan (600 MT). Exports of 61,800 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Costa Rica (33,000 MT), Mexico (16,500 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), Honduras (2,500 MT), South Korea (2,000 MT), Jordan (1,900 MT), and New Guinea (1,400 MT).
Soybeans: Net sales of 584,800 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (374,400 MT, including 167,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (129,800 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (114,500 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), and Taiwan (59,600 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from China), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (232,000 MT) and Morocco (23,800 MT). Net sales of 6,100 MT for 2009/10 delivery were for Japan. Exports of 951,500 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (609,200 MT), the Netherlands (129,800 MT), Japan (57,000 MT), Mexico (39,900 MT), Morocco (31,200 MT), Israel (23,300 MT), and Taiwan (23,000 MT).
Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 145,700 MT were up two and three-tenths times from the previous week and nearly two and two-fifths times from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (33,300 MT), Venezuela (23,000 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (16,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (15,700 MT), and Guatemala (11,900 MT). Exports of 229,700 MT were up 77 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (56,200 MT), Mexico (43,600 MT), Ecuador (27,400 MT), Canada (23,300 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT), and the Dominican Republic (16,300 MT).
Soybean Oil: Net sales of 5,400 MT were mainly for Canada (2,200 MT), Mexico (2,000 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), the Dominican Republic (300 MT), and Guatemala (200 MT). Decreases were for Saudi Arabia (100 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily Mexico (2,600 MT), Costa Rica (1,500 MT), El Salvador (800 MT), Canada (700 MT), Barbados (700 MT), and Nicaragua (600 MT).
Cotton: Net Upland sales of 118,900 running bales were up 52 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Turkey (26,700 RB), Morocco (17,100 RB), Indonesia (16,400 RB), China (13,700 RB), Bangladesh (10,200 RB), and Malaysia (9,700 RB), were partially offset by decreases for Pakistan (7,700 RB), El Salvador (1,900 RB), and unknown destinations (1,800 RB). Net sales of 1,000 RB for delivery in 2009/10 were for South Korea. Exports of 210,700 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (54,600 RB), Turkey (47,700 RB), Vietnam (29,500 RB), Mexico (12,600 RB), and Thailand (10,400 RB). Net American Pima Sales of 100 RB resulted as increases for Indonesia (600 RB), Thailand (400 RB), and Japan (400 RB), were partially offset by decreases for China (1,300 RB). Exports of 400 RB were for India.
Hides and Skins: Net sales of 689,400 pieces were up 7 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide sales of 719,500 pieces were primarily for China (352,900 pieces), South Korea (142,700 pieces), Taiwan (118,700 pieces), Mexico (30,300 pieces), and Japan (25,500 pieces). Exports of 455,700 pieces were up 12 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide exports of 443,400 pieces were primarily to China (224,300 pieces), South Korea (77,900 pieces), Thailand (39,500 pieces), Taiwan (34,800 pieces), and Mexico (27,100 pieces).
Net sales of 81,100 wet blues were down 9 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were mainly for Thailand (52,300 unsplit), Taiwan (28,400 unsplit), China (4,800 unsplit), Mexico (2,400 grain splits), and Hong Kong (1,800 unsplit). Exports of 78,800 hides were up 3 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (35,600 unsplit), Hong Kong (16,600 unsplit), Italy (14,700 unsplit), and Mexico (4,900 grain splits). Net sales of splits totaling 419,200 pounds were primarily for China (405,000 pounds). Exports of 128,200 pounds were down 63 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was China.
Beef: Net sales reductions of 6,200 MT resulted as increases for Mexico (1,900 MT), Canada (800 MT), and the Philippines (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for South Korea (7,100 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), Japan (600 MT), and Russia (400 MT). Net Sales of 13,000 MT for delivery in 2009 were primarily for South Korea (6,400 MT, switched from marketing year 2008), Vietnam (2,400 MT, including 900 MT switched from marketing year 2008), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Japan (1,100 MT, including 400 MT switched from marketing year 2008). Exports of 8,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (3,900 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), Japan (800 MT), South Korea (600 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT).
December 26, 2008
FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA
SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS
Reported Under the Daily Reporting System
For Period Ending December 18, 2008
Commodity Destination Quantity (MT) Marketing
SOYBEANS 1/ CHINA 116,000 2008/09
1/ Export sales.
-By Valena Henderson; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5171;
csstat@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-26-08 0832ET
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Cold Weather Drives Up Weekly Wheat Prices
With the bulls concerned over the first strong cold weather of the season possibly may damage the dormant wheat crops, prices for the week ended up.
Even though Friday prices were softer, the overall week had KCBT wheat rising by 44.75 cents to $5.83 a bushel, MGE grew by 35.25 cents to $6.2525 a bushel and March CBOT led them all, gaining 50.25 cents to finish the week at $5.6325.
Although there was worries over the weather, a number of meteorologists suggested the cold spell probably wouldn't do enough damage to the crops to make much of a difference. Even so, prices rose on the possibility.
Weather will be especially rough in the central and southern Plains, with below-zero forecasts in the mix. Some of the concern was directed to areas that had little or no snow to protect from the bitterly cold temperatures.
Of course it won't be known until the spring if the dormant crop really had any damage to it, so it's a wait-and-see game at this time.
Spring wheat traded on the MGE hasn't been planted yet.
Even though Friday prices were softer, the overall week had KCBT wheat rising by 44.75 cents to $5.83 a bushel, MGE grew by 35.25 cents to $6.2525 a bushel and March CBOT led them all, gaining 50.25 cents to finish the week at $5.6325.
Although there was worries over the weather, a number of meteorologists suggested the cold spell probably wouldn't do enough damage to the crops to make much of a difference. Even so, prices rose on the possibility.
Weather will be especially rough in the central and southern Plains, with below-zero forecasts in the mix. Some of the concern was directed to areas that had little or no snow to protect from the bitterly cold temperatures.
Of course it won't be known until the spring if the dormant crop really had any damage to it, so it's a wait-and-see game at this time.
Spring wheat traded on the MGE hasn't been planted yet.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Wheat Harvest Already Breaks Record
Even though South Africa, Australia and Argentina haven't harvested their wheat yet, current wheat harvests around the world have already broken a global record.
Over the last three years worldwide consumption has been 22.9, 22.7, and 22.7 billion bushels. So far this year 23.3 billion bushels have been harvested.
If consumption is similar to the past years, we'll see ending stocks increase by about 900 million bushels.
Projections for wheat use in 2008-2009 are at close to 24.1 billion bushels. After South Africa, Australia and Argentina harvest their wheat, supply is expected to come in at around 25 billion bushels.
With farmers belatedly planting more wheat because of past performance, it has caused this surge of supply. Now with prices falling because of so much product, wheat production costs are higher than what wheat prices can bring.
Many wheat farmers need to understand that when a great year just ends, it probably is a signal that the next year will end up just like this one, as the obvious knee jerk reaction of planting more acres will happen, which will drive down prices.
Those investing in wheat also need to take this into account.
Over the last three years worldwide consumption has been 22.9, 22.7, and 22.7 billion bushels. So far this year 23.3 billion bushels have been harvested.
If consumption is similar to the past years, we'll see ending stocks increase by about 900 million bushels.
Projections for wheat use in 2008-2009 are at close to 24.1 billion bushels. After South Africa, Australia and Argentina harvest their wheat, supply is expected to come in at around 25 billion bushels.
With farmers belatedly planting more wheat because of past performance, it has caused this surge of supply. Now with prices falling because of so much product, wheat production costs are higher than what wheat prices can bring.
Many wheat farmers need to understand that when a great year just ends, it probably is a signal that the next year will end up just like this one, as the obvious knee jerk reaction of planting more acres will happen, which will drive down prices.
Those investing in wheat also need to take this into account.
Friday, November 21, 2008
U.S. Could Land Some Wheat Export Business from Brazil
There are some things that would have to be overcome in order for Brazil to import some U.S. wheat this year; something that has become rare since the agreement between several South American countries to sell grain between countries with no duty attached to the deals.
While Argentina usually supplies the bulk of wheat to Brazil, this year their production has fallen drastically from last year's 16 million tons to only 10.1 million this year. Of that, last year 10.5 million tons were exported to Brazil, and this year projections are for only 5.8 million tons to be available.
The major disruptions causing the lackluster production for Argentina has been dry weather and less acreage planted in wheat.
A key factor the attractiveness of exporting to Brazil for the U.S. is if Brazil drops its import tax. The U.S. is able to send a high quality wheat with low freight charges, giving them an advantage over its competitors.
If that doesn't happen, U.S. wheat exports don't look too good.
With India making over 2 million extra tons of wheat available for export in their region, and Russia winning North Africa and Middle East contracts, it makes it harder for the U.S. to compete, as there's an abundance of wheat available because of the record crop this year.
The USDA is once again expected to drop its wheat export estimates over the next several months.
While Argentina usually supplies the bulk of wheat to Brazil, this year their production has fallen drastically from last year's 16 million tons to only 10.1 million this year. Of that, last year 10.5 million tons were exported to Brazil, and this year projections are for only 5.8 million tons to be available.
The major disruptions causing the lackluster production for Argentina has been dry weather and less acreage planted in wheat.
A key factor the attractiveness of exporting to Brazil for the U.S. is if Brazil drops its import tax. The U.S. is able to send a high quality wheat with low freight charges, giving them an advantage over its competitors.
If that doesn't happen, U.S. wheat exports don't look too good.
With India making over 2 million extra tons of wheat available for export in their region, and Russia winning North Africa and Middle East contracts, it makes it harder for the U.S. to compete, as there's an abundance of wheat available because of the record crop this year.
The USDA is once again expected to drop its wheat export estimates over the next several months.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Wheat Drops to Lowest Level in Three Weeks
The price of wheat in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in three weeks as traders aren't optimistic about the comming Department of Agriculture report on export sales data.
Expectations are the global crop will dampen the demand for American wheat, as production has increased in emerging countries.
Wheat that was inspected for export from the U.S. came in at about 13.2 million bushels for the week ending October 30, a drop of about 40 percent from the week ending October 23.
India is especially making an impact on exports this year, as it announced it will probably make about 2 million tons available on the export market. India could end up with a record wheat crop this year of 78.5 million tons.
Worldwide wheat production through June 30 is projected to leap by 12 percent to a record 683 million metric tons. That's the equivalent of about 25.1 billion bushels.
Wheat for December delivery dropped to $5.372 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Expectations are the global crop will dampen the demand for American wheat, as production has increased in emerging countries.
Wheat that was inspected for export from the U.S. came in at about 13.2 million bushels for the week ending October 30, a drop of about 40 percent from the week ending October 23.
India is especially making an impact on exports this year, as it announced it will probably make about 2 million tons available on the export market. India could end up with a record wheat crop this year of 78.5 million tons.
Worldwide wheat production through June 30 is projected to leap by 12 percent to a record 683 million metric tons. That's the equivalent of about 25.1 billion bushels.
Wheat for December delivery dropped to $5.372 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Wheat Prices in European Union Fall on Recession Fears
Wheat prices in the European Union fell today, largely tracking the global markets and U.S. grain futures.
The emotional boost from the central banks' PR machine around the world is largely over, and even if bankruptcy on a global scale has been avoided, the fundamentals underlying the problem remain, and most commodities, including wheat, continue to feel the downward pressure as a result.
In Europe, November milling wheat futures dropped by 4 euros to 143.00 euros a ton, as of 1500 GMT on the Euronext.
Wheat futures in London fell as well, as the strength of the British pound against the U.S. dollar and euro is slowing down exports from the country. Wheat exports from Britain are down a huge 42 percent from last year, as competition, along with the stronger sterling hammers the export market.
Italy also experienced a significant drop in wheat prices, as they have fallen between 5-10 euros from last week's close.
There is an abundance of wheat, and that surplus, along with weaker demand, is pushing down prices.
The emotional boost from the central banks' PR machine around the world is largely over, and even if bankruptcy on a global scale has been avoided, the fundamentals underlying the problem remain, and most commodities, including wheat, continue to feel the downward pressure as a result.
In Europe, November milling wheat futures dropped by 4 euros to 143.00 euros a ton, as of 1500 GMT on the Euronext.
Wheat futures in London fell as well, as the strength of the British pound against the U.S. dollar and euro is slowing down exports from the country. Wheat exports from Britain are down a huge 42 percent from last year, as competition, along with the stronger sterling hammers the export market.
Italy also experienced a significant drop in wheat prices, as they have fallen between 5-10 euros from last week's close.
There is an abundance of wheat, and that surplus, along with weaker demand, is pushing down prices.
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