Wheat Market
Wheat futures continue their downward slide as they are down a whopping 33 percent from the same time last year, and the overall market looks to continue to be bearish, as international demand continues to slide.
“The wheat market is in a slumber,” Stuart Richardson, Australian commodity management spokesman for the Melbourne- based company, said today. “Flour mills around the world have generally entered the new season with greater stocks in their supply line than the year before.
“There is plenty of wheat available competing for limited demand, so the fundamental market picture is bearish,” Richardson added, which updated estimated wheat prices for Australian farmers. “Production risk is diminishing in the northern hemisphere, with the winter wheat harvests almost complete in the U.S. and well advanced in the European Union and Black Sea region.”
For the second month in a row wheat futures have fallen, and wheat speculators and hedge fund managers are increasing their short positions in the golden grain, believing they haven't yet reached their lows.
Wheat Market
Showing posts with label Wheat 2009. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wheat 2009. Show all posts
Monday, August 3, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Monsanto Looking to wheat
Monsanto Looking to wheat to drive share prices up
Looking for more ways to increase their share price, Monsanto is looking to wheat as a significant means of doing that, and recent aquisition of WestBred LLC is the first significant step in that direction, although it could take a decade before the investment pays off.
Knowing it needs a way to expand market share in wheat, Monsanto a Monsanto analyst, citing expectations that the company's $45 million acquisition of WestBred LLC won't add to earnings until 2016, and will add less than a dime a share by 2025.
Privately held WestBred, with offices in Montana, specializes in wheat germplasm, the genetic material of a seed.
Monsanto said about the investment that it will strengthen the future growth of Monsanto's seeds and traits platform; and allow farmers to benefit from the company's experience in drought-, disease- and pest-tolerance innovations.
This action by Monsanto, the world's biggest provider of seeds, signifies the company's re-entry to the wheat market, but will only increase earnings several years down the road at best.
Assuming Monsanto has a 20 percent share of the certified seed market by 2025, estimates are wheat could only add between 7 cents and 9 cents a share to earnings a share by 2025.
"Clearly, Monsanto needs to find ways to drive significant market share gains, wheat platform should not be accretive to earnings until 2016 or later."
Managing expectations, Monsanto is calling the acquisition a long-term investment that won't add to earnings until the middle or latter part of the next decade.
Monsanto Looking to wheat to drive share prices up
Looking for more ways to increase their share price, Monsanto is looking to wheat as a significant means of doing that, and recent aquisition of WestBred LLC is the first significant step in that direction, although it could take a decade before the investment pays off.
Knowing it needs a way to expand market share in wheat, Monsanto a Monsanto analyst, citing expectations that the company's $45 million acquisition of WestBred LLC won't add to earnings until 2016, and will add less than a dime a share by 2025.
Privately held WestBred, with offices in Montana, specializes in wheat germplasm, the genetic material of a seed.
Monsanto said about the investment that it will strengthen the future growth of Monsanto's seeds and traits platform; and allow farmers to benefit from the company's experience in drought-, disease- and pest-tolerance innovations.
This action by Monsanto, the world's biggest provider of seeds, signifies the company's re-entry to the wheat market, but will only increase earnings several years down the road at best.
Assuming Monsanto has a 20 percent share of the certified seed market by 2025, estimates are wheat could only add between 7 cents and 9 cents a share to earnings a share by 2025.
"Clearly, Monsanto needs to find ways to drive significant market share gains, wheat platform should not be accretive to earnings until 2016 or later."
Managing expectations, Monsanto is calling the acquisition a long-term investment that won't add to earnings until the middle or latter part of the next decade.
Monsanto Looking to wheat to drive share prices up
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Wheat: Argentina Wheat Market Crumbling
Although a number of crops are failing in Argentina, including corn and soy, wheat is also participating in the destructive drought that is crushing the entire agriculture sector of Argentina.
The commodity grain sector hasn't moved with the metals market, as demand for everything is down, even though people still need to eat, as well as their livestock.
This is particularly difficult for Argentina, who is one of the top exporters of grains in the world, and so depend on so much on it for the welfare of the country.
At this time things are so bad that farmers have given up trying to salvage their wheat crop, and instead are focusing on saving their cattle. Even if the cattle are saved, they will be difficult to breed because of the lack of food for them.
According to farmers in Argentina, wheat fields are as dried as they can be, with little hope of salvaging a wheat crop, as there is little to put in storage.
Unfortunately for everyone involved, the wheat planting, wheat yield and wheat harvest around the world has been huge, and so the drought in Argentina is hurting them without benefiting anyone else.
Even though farmers in the U.S. were hoping to get some of the trade usually done by Argentina with Brazil, it looks like it won't have much impact on wheat exports from the U.S., and so Argentines will be the ones to suffer.
So in spite of this, wheat futures aren't moving much because of this, although there was a slight move upward recently based on wheat news from the country. But it's not sustainable.
Weather predictions in the country are, as usual, contradictory, and so some say the drought will end with rain coming, and others say it won't amount to much. Either way, wheat farmers in Argentina, and its people, are in for a long struggle as grain prices continue to fall.
For Argentina, this is the worst year for drought and lack of rain since 1971, and even if there is a major change in the weather patterns, the wheat harvest will be way down, as wheat production grinds to a halt.
Along with the wheat crop, other crops suffering are corn and soy, with silos there to store the crops are in many cases empty or half full.
Even though soy is down, it is still on the positive side, and is projected to increase in production by 7 percent. The corn harvest will fall by about 27 percent, and wheat production will be hit the most from the poor growing season projected to plunge by 44 percent over the 2008-2009 harvesting season.
Grains are so scarce in the country, that the Argentine government is has even lowered the minimum weight requirements to slaughter cattle so the farmers can make some money off them before they are worthless or die.
It'll take some time to recover from this wheat disaster, as Argentina will suffer probably for a couple years or more trying to come back from this natural disaster.
In a normal year this would have boosted wheat prices tremendously, but the wheat harvest has been so plentiful globally, that it will easily absorb the losses without making a difference in wheat prices.
The commodity grain sector hasn't moved with the metals market, as demand for everything is down, even though people still need to eat, as well as their livestock.
This is particularly difficult for Argentina, who is one of the top exporters of grains in the world, and so depend on so much on it for the welfare of the country.
At this time things are so bad that farmers have given up trying to salvage their wheat crop, and instead are focusing on saving their cattle. Even if the cattle are saved, they will be difficult to breed because of the lack of food for them.
According to farmers in Argentina, wheat fields are as dried as they can be, with little hope of salvaging a wheat crop, as there is little to put in storage.
Unfortunately for everyone involved, the wheat planting, wheat yield and wheat harvest around the world has been huge, and so the drought in Argentina is hurting them without benefiting anyone else.
Even though farmers in the U.S. were hoping to get some of the trade usually done by Argentina with Brazil, it looks like it won't have much impact on wheat exports from the U.S., and so Argentines will be the ones to suffer.
So in spite of this, wheat futures aren't moving much because of this, although there was a slight move upward recently based on wheat news from the country. But it's not sustainable.
Weather predictions in the country are, as usual, contradictory, and so some say the drought will end with rain coming, and others say it won't amount to much. Either way, wheat farmers in Argentina, and its people, are in for a long struggle as grain prices continue to fall.
For Argentina, this is the worst year for drought and lack of rain since 1971, and even if there is a major change in the weather patterns, the wheat harvest will be way down, as wheat production grinds to a halt.
Along with the wheat crop, other crops suffering are corn and soy, with silos there to store the crops are in many cases empty or half full.
Even though soy is down, it is still on the positive side, and is projected to increase in production by 7 percent. The corn harvest will fall by about 27 percent, and wheat production will be hit the most from the poor growing season projected to plunge by 44 percent over the 2008-2009 harvesting season.
Grains are so scarce in the country, that the Argentine government is has even lowered the minimum weight requirements to slaughter cattle so the farmers can make some money off them before they are worthless or die.
It'll take some time to recover from this wheat disaster, as Argentina will suffer probably for a couple years or more trying to come back from this natural disaster.
In a normal year this would have boosted wheat prices tremendously, but the wheat harvest has been so plentiful globally, that it will easily absorb the losses without making a difference in wheat prices.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Wheat Prices Will Fall as Demand Dries Up
Some traders are looking for any tidbit of information to keep the wheat prices up, but I don't think they can hold for too long.
Much of the argument for wheat prices holding is the dry weather in a couple regions in South America.
But with prices higher now than the fundamentals warrant, it's hard to believe people seriously think losing a little bit of the global crop will really make much difference. There's so much wheat available that it would take something of epic proportions to keep prices up.
Even add in the possibility that the cold front in the U.S. may damage some wheat crop if there isn't any snow cover, and that still doesn't change the fact of the huge global supply available.
Most of what's been driving the prices up over the last couple months has been the re-entry of some funds into the market, along with the soybean rally. Over the last 6 weeks wheat futures have risen approximately 25 percent.
With demand so low, I don't see that being able to continue in any sustainable way in the months ahead.
The one unknown is when the U.S. dollar will start collapsing under the weight of the huge amounts of money being used to stimulate the U.S. economy. That would of course make exporting wheat much cheaper, and could increase sales.
The problem is there's no way of knowing how long that will take, so it can only be watched for, not counted on, as far as timing goes. When it does happen though, it will be a boon to commodity producers in the U.S.
Concerning demand, the USDA on Monday projected the ending stocks for U.S. wheat in 2008 - 2009 stand at 655 million bushels, an increase of 32 million from December's estimates. With nowhere to really send that wheat, as demand is so soft and wheat so plentiful, it will stay in storage until there's someone to sell it to.
Even that will continue to be a challenge as for the same time period, wheat consumption accroding to the USDA estimates, are being lowered.
Livestock markets have no interest at this time in buying either, as they're struggling as much as anyone else, with exports down and profits under pressure. Cost inputs and lower priced global wheat remains major factors in these decisions.
While there's nothing that can be done about it now, the real problem stems from last years' prices, where everything went right for U.S. wheat farmers, and supply was down globally. Farmers responded predictably by putting more wheat in the ground for this season, contributing in part to the current glut.
This wasn't too smart, as the chances of having two years in a row like that are almost nil, and they knew foreign farmers would respond the same at lower costs. Farmers, as well as anybody in business must learn if they missed it this time around, there's not much guarantee they hit it the next.
It's expected that spring wheat acreage planted this year will drop, especially if prices don't come back, which they are highly unlikely to do.
Much of the argument for wheat prices holding is the dry weather in a couple regions in South America.
But with prices higher now than the fundamentals warrant, it's hard to believe people seriously think losing a little bit of the global crop will really make much difference. There's so much wheat available that it would take something of epic proportions to keep prices up.
Even add in the possibility that the cold front in the U.S. may damage some wheat crop if there isn't any snow cover, and that still doesn't change the fact of the huge global supply available.
Most of what's been driving the prices up over the last couple months has been the re-entry of some funds into the market, along with the soybean rally. Over the last 6 weeks wheat futures have risen approximately 25 percent.
With demand so low, I don't see that being able to continue in any sustainable way in the months ahead.
The one unknown is when the U.S. dollar will start collapsing under the weight of the huge amounts of money being used to stimulate the U.S. economy. That would of course make exporting wheat much cheaper, and could increase sales.
The problem is there's no way of knowing how long that will take, so it can only be watched for, not counted on, as far as timing goes. When it does happen though, it will be a boon to commodity producers in the U.S.
Concerning demand, the USDA on Monday projected the ending stocks for U.S. wheat in 2008 - 2009 stand at 655 million bushels, an increase of 32 million from December's estimates. With nowhere to really send that wheat, as demand is so soft and wheat so plentiful, it will stay in storage until there's someone to sell it to.
Even that will continue to be a challenge as for the same time period, wheat consumption accroding to the USDA estimates, are being lowered.
Livestock markets have no interest at this time in buying either, as they're struggling as much as anyone else, with exports down and profits under pressure. Cost inputs and lower priced global wheat remains major factors in these decisions.
While there's nothing that can be done about it now, the real problem stems from last years' prices, where everything went right for U.S. wheat farmers, and supply was down globally. Farmers responded predictably by putting more wheat in the ground for this season, contributing in part to the current glut.
This wasn't too smart, as the chances of having two years in a row like that are almost nil, and they knew foreign farmers would respond the same at lower costs. Farmers, as well as anybody in business must learn if they missed it this time around, there's not much guarantee they hit it the next.
It's expected that spring wheat acreage planted this year will drop, especially if prices don't come back, which they are highly unlikely to do.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Cold Weather Drives Up Weekly Wheat Prices
With the bulls concerned over the first strong cold weather of the season possibly may damage the dormant wheat crops, prices for the week ended up.
Even though Friday prices were softer, the overall week had KCBT wheat rising by 44.75 cents to $5.83 a bushel, MGE grew by 35.25 cents to $6.2525 a bushel and March CBOT led them all, gaining 50.25 cents to finish the week at $5.6325.
Although there was worries over the weather, a number of meteorologists suggested the cold spell probably wouldn't do enough damage to the crops to make much of a difference. Even so, prices rose on the possibility.
Weather will be especially rough in the central and southern Plains, with below-zero forecasts in the mix. Some of the concern was directed to areas that had little or no snow to protect from the bitterly cold temperatures.
Of course it won't be known until the spring if the dormant crop really had any damage to it, so it's a wait-and-see game at this time.
Spring wheat traded on the MGE hasn't been planted yet.
Even though Friday prices were softer, the overall week had KCBT wheat rising by 44.75 cents to $5.83 a bushel, MGE grew by 35.25 cents to $6.2525 a bushel and March CBOT led them all, gaining 50.25 cents to finish the week at $5.6325.
Although there was worries over the weather, a number of meteorologists suggested the cold spell probably wouldn't do enough damage to the crops to make much of a difference. Even so, prices rose on the possibility.
Weather will be especially rough in the central and southern Plains, with below-zero forecasts in the mix. Some of the concern was directed to areas that had little or no snow to protect from the bitterly cold temperatures.
Of course it won't be known until the spring if the dormant crop really had any damage to it, so it's a wait-and-see game at this time.
Spring wheat traded on the MGE hasn't been planted yet.
Friday, October 10, 2008
U.S. Department of Agriculture's Supply/demand Report Raises 2008-09 Wheat Carryout Estimate
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply/demand report on wheat carryout surprised a number of industry analysts, as they were looking for carryout to fall, as overseas demand and increased usage for feed generated the assumption carryout would decrease.
On the contrary, government estimates for 2008-09 wheat carryout increased from 574 million bushels to 601 million.
The major reason for all this is even with increased demand and domestic usage, wheat production has been so high that it offset the other two factors.
With acreage for wheat use already expanded for the 2008-09 season based on high wheat prices, it will be a challenge to maintain those prices as production increases even more than this year.
According to the USDA, global wheat production is estimated at 680.2 million tons, a record crop.
All of this isn't a big surprise of course, as we all knew there was going to be a huge crop, the surprise is in the increase of the carryout rather than decline.
On the contrary, government estimates for 2008-09 wheat carryout increased from 574 million bushels to 601 million.
The major reason for all this is even with increased demand and domestic usage, wheat production has been so high that it offset the other two factors.
With acreage for wheat use already expanded for the 2008-09 season based on high wheat prices, it will be a challenge to maintain those prices as production increases even more than this year.
According to the USDA, global wheat production is estimated at 680.2 million tons, a record crop.
All of this isn't a big surprise of course, as we all knew there was going to be a huge crop, the surprise is in the increase of the carryout rather than decline.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
US Wheat Plunges on Economic Fears and Pressure
Commodities continue to take a beating as the markets worldwide become under increasing pressure. Wheat suffered along with most others as they tumbled on all the exchanges.
Along with the economic conditions, other factors were the stronger U.S. dollar and the drop in price of soybeans and corn. A stronger U.S. dollar makes investments in commodities less attractive to foreign traders.
The outlook for 2008 through 2009 looks somewhat grim for wheat, as outside pressures of the global economy continue and the projected record wheat crop drives prices further down.
Along with U.S. wheat production, Canada is raising its wheat production forecast, as are many other countries.
Much of that is because of increased number of acres being planted in wheat as well as expected good weather conditions.
On the Chicago Board of Trade December wheat dropped by 45 cents to $5.95 1/4 a bushel for December. December wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade fell 42 1/4 cents to $6.28 1/4 a bushel, while December wheat declined by 38 cents to $6.64 3/4 on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.
Along with the economic conditions, other factors were the stronger U.S. dollar and the drop in price of soybeans and corn. A stronger U.S. dollar makes investments in commodities less attractive to foreign traders.
The outlook for 2008 through 2009 looks somewhat grim for wheat, as outside pressures of the global economy continue and the projected record wheat crop drives prices further down.
Along with U.S. wheat production, Canada is raising its wheat production forecast, as are many other countries.
Much of that is because of increased number of acres being planted in wheat as well as expected good weather conditions.
On the Chicago Board of Trade December wheat dropped by 45 cents to $5.95 1/4 a bushel for December. December wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade fell 42 1/4 cents to $6.28 1/4 a bushel, while December wheat declined by 38 cents to $6.64 3/4 on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Australia Should Still have Bumper Wheat Crop in Spite of Drought
Even though some areas in Australia may experience a drop in wheat production because of an ongoing drought, overall the country is expected to enjoy a huge increase in exports in contrast to previous years.
The USDA projects about a 25 million ton harvest in 2008-09, in comparison to 13 million tons in 2007. That amount (25 million tons) is expected to be revised down in the next USDA report. Even so, Russell Phillips, general manager, Australian department of agriculture, fisheries and forestry, said he thinks the country could end up exporting about 16 million tons this year.
The new Australian export regulator, Wheat Exports Australia (WEA), has accredited five companies for exports so far, as Cargill Australia Ltd, Elders Toepfer Grain Pty Ltd, Goodman Fielder Consumer Foods Pty Ltd, Grain Pool Pty Ltd and OzEpulse Pty Ltd made the first cut.
Former export regulator Australian Wheat Board (AWB) was replaced after a scandal caused them to be replaced. Still, they have applied to the WEA for accreditation this week and are waiting for a reply. The AWB was cited for taking illicit payments from the former Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein.
Globally, wheat is expected to reach record levels of 670.8 million tons by May 31, 2009, up by 9.9 percent over last year. Stockpiles could surge by 18 percent to 136.2 million tons, according to the USDA.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Wheat Climbs to Eight-week High On Weak Dollar, Surge in Crude Oil
Wheat enjoyed a comeback on Thursday, as it reached an eight-week high, as crude oil helped lift it up, along with a weakening U.S. dollar. Corn and soybean increases also helped push the commodity upwards.
On the CBOT, December wheat ended the session up 22 3/4 cents at $9.22 1/4 a bushel. December wheat at the Kansas City Board of Trade finished at 23 1/2 cents higher at $9.50 3/4, while December wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange ended the session at $9.82 1/4, a 27 1/4 cent increase.
U.S. wheat export demand should remain strong, as weekly export sales for 2008-09 for the U.S. is at a marketing year high of 916,500 tons. The average of 522 million bushels of export wheat sales is about 10 percent above the five-year average. Wheat shipments are running at about 37 percent higher than the five-year average.
On the CBOT, December wheat ended the session up 22 3/4 cents at $9.22 1/4 a bushel. December wheat at the Kansas City Board of Trade finished at 23 1/2 cents higher at $9.50 3/4, while December wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange ended the session at $9.82 1/4, a 27 1/4 cent increase.
U.S. wheat export demand should remain strong, as weekly export sales for 2008-09 for the U.S. is at a marketing year high of 916,500 tons. The average of 522 million bushels of export wheat sales is about 10 percent above the five-year average. Wheat shipments are running at about 37 percent higher than the five-year average.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Wheat Growers Facing Tough Cost-Control Challenges in 2009
The end of the huge profits for wheat producers may come to an end next year as skyrocketing prices of inputs, in the face of flattening prices, will challenge producers to manage their costs more efficiently than ever.
Prices of almost everything have increased significantly, including fuel, fertilizer, machinery, labor, crop insurance and seed. A number of these inputs have surged by almost 20 percent over the last year. If producers want to add land to the mix, prices have also increased by 19 percent over the last 12 months as well.
As of 2004, breakeven for wheat was around $4 a bushel, in 2009 it's projected to reach over $6.85 a bushel.
Who would have thought that the idea of $7.00 wheat would have profitability challenges, but in 2009 that's a distinct possibility and probability.
How and when producers buy and at what discount may be the difference between profits and losses next year.
Go here for costs and revenue of irrigated and dryland winter wheat over the last ten years, included the projections for 2009.
Prices of almost everything have increased significantly, including fuel, fertilizer, machinery, labor, crop insurance and seed. A number of these inputs have surged by almost 20 percent over the last year. If producers want to add land to the mix, prices have also increased by 19 percent over the last 12 months as well.
As of 2004, breakeven for wheat was around $4 a bushel, in 2009 it's projected to reach over $6.85 a bushel.
Who would have thought that the idea of $7.00 wheat would have profitability challenges, but in 2009 that's a distinct possibility and probability.
How and when producers buy and at what discount may be the difference between profits and losses next year.
Go here for costs and revenue of irrigated and dryland winter wheat over the last ten years, included the projections for 2009.
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