Wheat Prices Plunge on Supply Boost

Wheat headed for the biggest weekly drop in more than two years in Chicago after the U.S. unexpectedly raised its global supply estimate. Rice and corn also declined on forecasts for bigger supplies.

Global wheat inventories will total 181.9 million metric tons at the end of the marketing year on May 31, up 2.3 percent from last month’s estimate, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast stockpiles would decline to 177.56 million tons. Corn and rice inventory estimates also climbed.

“The USDA pointed to inventory stabilization, with small inventory builds for most crops,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Damien Courvalin said in a report. “We believe that this stabilization will put a lid on crop prices in the short term. With the market focus shifting to the likely 2011-2012 supply response, we actually see downside risk to crop prices in the near term.”

Wheat for May delivery slid 14 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $7.265 a bushel at 10:06 a.m. London time on the Chicago Board of Trade. The grain is down 13 percent this week, on course for the biggest decline since December 2008.




Source

India Wheat Spoils on Lack of Warehouses

Crop storage has been a problem in India for some time, and this year its hitting hard, as wheat that could have fed up to 210 million people annually is beginning to rot because of lack of warehouses to put it in.

According to estimates by the Indian government, about 17.8 million metric tons of wheat is at risk, where it is stored outdoors under tarps, while the monsoon season begins to hit.

Unfortunately, the price of food and inflation has risen in the double digits for months, and to export the wheat to generate income which could be used in helpful ways, could result in large protests, and possibly riots.

So the grain continues to mount up rather than be used for some good. The only ones being helped by it at this time is the dogs ... literally.

The other hard place the government finds itself in is it is unable to buy wheat because it would increase the growing deficit in the country, as it would have to do it at subsidized prices.

But Biraj Patnaik, a key adviser to the Supreme Court of India, said, "The government is acting like the biggest hoarder. It's unconscionable and unacceptable."

"You're going to end up losing as much money on food grains that go bad than the subsidies would incur if they distributed it to the poor," he added. "It's completely irrational and illogical not to distribute it right away.

A growing number of people are pushing for the privatization of the market in order to increase investment in the sector and drive down prices, and create a better storage and supply channel.

Wheat Woes Continue, Plunge to Three-Year Low

Good weather has resulted in a strong wheat crop, and consequently wheat futures plunged to a 3-year low as harvest in the southern U.S. Great Plains States begins.

Precipitation was the major factor in the bumper yields, as there was four times as much rain in the last month than normal, according to National Weather Service data.

Wheat futures for July delivery fell 3.5 cents, 0.8 percent, to $4.3225 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after reaching $4.31 a bushel, the lowest price for a most-active contract since April 3, 2007.

With the growing number of wheat farmers around the world and bumper wheat crops, there continues to be little reason prices will increase going forward, and makes you wander why farmers continue to plant the grain, other than government subsidies.

Wheat in Sixth Quarterly Drop

The sixth straight quarterly drop by wheat is the longest losing streak in a minimum of 50 years, as global supply far exceeds demand, continuing to put downward pressure on wheat prices.

According to USDA data, global wheat stockpiles have increased by 10 percent to reach 186.6 million tons during 2009-2010. Oveall production could reach as high as 663.7 tons, only behind last year's 682.3 million tons.

With many other countries focusing on increasing their own domestic wheat supplies, imports have plunged to 121.1 million tons from the 141.2 million tons at the same time last year.

As of mid-September, only 10.5 million metric tons of wheat, or 386 bushels was ordered by foreign buyers, a huge decrease of 36 percent from a year ago.

Wheat supply and prices - Wheat prices going down

Wheat Futures Prices Near Term

Wheat Futures Prices

Wheat futures in the U.S. should continue to go nowhere for some time ahead unless something extraordinary happens where huge losses come about, which could probably only happen in Australia.

Production estimates for wheat continue to increase while demand decreases, cutting back significantly on wheat exports.

The USDA estimated 2009 U.S. wheat production was raised to 2.184 billion bushels from its July estimate of 2.112 billion, while the global wheat crop increased to 659.3 million tons from 656.5 million tons last month. The USDA's estimate for global ending stocks -- or what is left over after supply and demand are accounted for - also increased.

Wheat prices have plunged over the past year as global supplies have increased, and there is little sign of anything changing.

The continuing bearish information strengthened "the prevailing tone of the wheat market - one adrift in search of a persuasive fundamental storyline and dependant upon direction from other commodities," J.P. Morgan analyst Lewis Hagedorn said. "Absent a large decline in Australian production or demonstration of increasing global demand for protein wheat, prices appear likely to continue a gradual downward slide."

CBOT wheat will probably continue to experience new contract lows, although losses will be limited during the medium term by possible strength in CBOT corn and soybeans. Wheat prices should generally remain rangebound during the next couple of months.

Projections are it's possible September wheat could drop as low as $4.50 or December wheat to touch $4.75. The top end of the contracts' ranges should be about $5.25 for September, assuming a rally in beans and corn comes about.

A lot of negative things would have to happen across the world in order for any type of rally to happen, along with El Niño drying up Australian wheat fields, a continuing wheat disaster in Argentina, and an ongoing rain shortage in the Black Sea Region

But even with all of that happening, there's no surety, as the other places in the world have shored up their domestic wheat production, which is the real mitigating factor in the overall scheme of things.

At best there would be a mild recovery of wheat prices assuming all the above happens, but that doesn't guarantee the U.S. would be getting that business.

Wheat Futures Prices

Wheat Prices Fall to Exchange Limit on Rising Supply

While wheat didn't revise estimates near as much as corn, global projections still rose 0.7 percent to 148.4 million metric tons by the close of the marketing year on May 31, according to the USDA.

Estimates are there will be a surplus of U.S. wheat of 655 million bushels - an increase of 5.1 percent - by May 31. That will be over double the 306 million bushels available last year.

December wheat inventories in the U.S. increased by 26 percent to 1.422 billion bushels on December 1, a 26 percent increase over last year's 1.132 billon bushels.

Wheat futures for March delivery dropped 59.75 cents, or 9.5 percent, to $5.6975. Earlier in the session it dropped to its 60 cents limit.

From September to December, farmers planted 42.098 million acres, down from the 46.281 acres in 2007.

Wheat Prices Slightly Up on Dry Weather, Investment Funds

Although wheat was able to post gains of about 1 percent, primarily on the dry weather pattern in South America, overall poor demand still weighs on upward movement, and should cause the grain to fall.

Another help for prices this week were some investment funds reentering the commodities market.

Global wheat supplies are abundant this year, and most are less expensive than American wheat, which should continue to put downward pressure on the price.

For the week, U.S. wheat exports plunged from the expected 300,000 to 400,000 tons, to only 41,800 tons.

Unless the number of acres planted for wheat goes down significantly, wheat prices could fall to lows as spring breaks in.

If weather continues to be dry in South America, it could help the prices hold for a little longer.

DJ US Export Sales: Commodity Highlights - Dec 26

Kansas City, Dec 26, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- USDA Thursday released the following export highlights in its Export Sales report for week ended Dec 18.

Wheat: Net sales of 253,600 metric tons were down 3 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (58,600 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Taiwan (56,000 MT), Japan (53,700 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT, including 30,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Yemen (28,000 MT), and South Korea (23,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (50,800 MT) and Spain (40,000 MT). Exports of 290,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 30 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (96,900 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Japan (46,500 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT), Morocco (19,600 MT), and Colombia (15,400 MT).

Corn: Net sales of 551,400 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (263,900 MT), Taiwan (90,500 MT, including 79,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (81,000 MT), Venezuela (80,000 MT), Guatemala (22,400 MT), and Syria (18,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for South Korea (24,600 MT), Egypt (16,300 MT), unknown destinations (12,000 MT), and Colombia (5,800 MT). Exports of 831,300 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (289,200 MT), Mexico (119,000 MT), Taiwan (117,200 MT), South Korea (114,300 MT), Colombia (69,100 MT), Canada (28,900 MT), and Egypt (24,100 MT).

Barley: There were no sales reported during the week. Exports of 5,600 MT were for Japan (4,900 MT) and Mexico (700 MT).

Sorghum: Net sales of 88,900 MT were for Mexico. Exports of 12,800 MT were for Mexico (12,700 MT) and Canada (100 MT).

Rice: Net sales of 23,300 MT were down 77 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (20,000 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Jordan (600 MT), and the Bahamas (200 MT). Decreases were for Japan (600 MT). Exports of 61,800 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Costa Rica (33,000 MT), Mexico (16,500 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), Honduras (2,500 MT), South Korea (2,000 MT), Jordan (1,900 MT), and New Guinea (1,400 MT).

Soybeans: Net sales of 584,800 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (374,400 MT, including 167,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (129,800 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (114,500 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), and Taiwan (59,600 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from China), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (232,000 MT) and Morocco (23,800 MT). Net sales of 6,100 MT for 2009/10 delivery were for Japan. Exports of 951,500 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (609,200 MT), the Netherlands (129,800 MT), Japan (57,000 MT), Mexico (39,900 MT), Morocco (31,200 MT), Israel (23,300 MT), and Taiwan (23,000 MT).

Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 145,700 MT were up two and three-tenths times from the previous week and nearly two and two-fifths times from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (33,300 MT), Venezuela (23,000 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (16,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (15,700 MT), and Guatemala (11,900 MT). Exports of 229,700 MT were up 77 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (56,200 MT), Mexico (43,600 MT), Ecuador (27,400 MT), Canada (23,300 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT), and the Dominican Republic (16,300 MT).

Soybean Oil: Net sales of 5,400 MT were mainly for Canada (2,200 MT), Mexico (2,000 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), the Dominican Republic (300 MT), and Guatemala (200 MT). Decreases were for Saudi Arabia (100 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily Mexico (2,600 MT), Costa Rica (1,500 MT), El Salvador (800 MT), Canada (700 MT), Barbados (700 MT), and Nicaragua (600 MT).

Cotton: Net Upland sales of 118,900 running bales were up 52 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Turkey (26,700 RB), Morocco (17,100 RB), Indonesia (16,400 RB), China (13,700 RB), Bangladesh (10,200 RB), and Malaysia (9,700 RB), were partially offset by decreases for Pakistan (7,700 RB), El Salvador (1,900 RB), and unknown destinations (1,800 RB). Net sales of 1,000 RB for delivery in 2009/10 were for South Korea. Exports of 210,700 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (54,600 RB), Turkey (47,700 RB), Vietnam (29,500 RB), Mexico (12,600 RB), and Thailand (10,400 RB). Net American Pima Sales of 100 RB resulted as increases for Indonesia (600 RB), Thailand (400 RB), and Japan (400 RB), were partially offset by decreases for China (1,300 RB). Exports of 400 RB were for India.

Hides and Skins: Net sales of 689,400 pieces were up 7 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide sales of 719,500 pieces were primarily for China (352,900 pieces), South Korea (142,700 pieces), Taiwan (118,700 pieces), Mexico (30,300 pieces), and Japan (25,500 pieces). Exports of 455,700 pieces were up 12 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide exports of 443,400 pieces were primarily to China (224,300 pieces), South Korea (77,900 pieces), Thailand (39,500 pieces), Taiwan (34,800 pieces), and Mexico (27,100 pieces).

Net sales of 81,100 wet blues were down 9 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were mainly for Thailand (52,300 unsplit), Taiwan (28,400 unsplit), China (4,800 unsplit), Mexico (2,400 grain splits), and Hong Kong (1,800 unsplit). Exports of 78,800 hides were up 3 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (35,600 unsplit), Hong Kong (16,600 unsplit), Italy (14,700 unsplit), and Mexico (4,900 grain splits). Net sales of splits totaling 419,200 pounds were primarily for China (405,000 pounds). Exports of 128,200 pounds were down 63 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was China.

Beef: Net sales reductions of 6,200 MT resulted as increases for Mexico (1,900 MT), Canada (800 MT), and the Philippines (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for South Korea (7,100 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), Japan (600 MT), and Russia (400 MT). Net Sales of 13,000 MT for delivery in 2009 were primarily for South Korea (6,400 MT, switched from marketing year 2008), Vietnam (2,400 MT, including 900 MT switched from marketing year 2008), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Japan (1,100 MT, including 400 MT switched from marketing year 2008). Exports of 8,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (3,900 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), Japan (800 MT), South Korea (600 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT).

December 26, 2008

FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA
SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS
Reported Under the Daily Reporting System
For Period Ending December 18, 2008
Commodity Destination Quantity (MT) Marketing
SOYBEANS 1/ CHINA 116,000 2008/09

1/ Export sales.

-By Valena Henderson; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5171;
csstat@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-26-08 0832ET
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Wheat Prices in European Union Fall on Recession Fears

Wheat prices in the European Union fell today, largely tracking the global markets and U.S. grain futures.

The emotional boost from the central banks' PR machine around the world is largely over, and even if bankruptcy on a global scale has been avoided, the fundamentals underlying the problem remain, and most commodities, including wheat, continue to feel the downward pressure as a result.

In Europe, November milling wheat futures dropped by 4 euros to 143.00 euros a ton, as of 1500 GMT on the Euronext.

Wheat futures in London fell as well, as the strength of the British pound against the U.S. dollar and euro is slowing down exports from the country. Wheat exports from Britain are down a huge 42 percent from last year, as competition, along with the stronger sterling hammers the export market.

Italy also experienced a significant drop in wheat prices, as they have fallen between 5-10 euros from last week's close.

There is an abundance of wheat, and that surplus, along with weaker demand, is pushing down prices.

U.S. Department of Agriculture's Supply/demand Report Raises 2008-09 Wheat Carryout Estimate

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply/demand report on wheat carryout surprised a number of industry analysts, as they were looking for carryout to fall, as overseas demand and increased usage for feed generated the assumption carryout would decrease.

On the contrary, government estimates for 2008-09 wheat carryout increased from 574 million bushels to 601 million.

The major reason for all this is even with increased demand and domestic usage, wheat production has been so high that it offset the other two factors.

With acreage for wheat use already expanded for the 2008-09 season based on high wheat prices, it will be a challenge to maintain those prices as production increases even more than this year.

According to the USDA, global wheat production is estimated at 680.2 million tons, a record crop.

All of this isn't a big surprise of course, as we all knew there was going to be a huge crop, the surprise is in the increase of the carryout rather than decline.

US Wheat Plunges on Economic Fears and Pressure

Commodities continue to take a beating as the markets worldwide become under increasing pressure. Wheat suffered along with most others as they tumbled on all the exchanges.

Along with the economic conditions, other factors were the stronger U.S. dollar and the drop in price of soybeans and corn. A stronger U.S. dollar makes investments in commodities less attractive to foreign traders.

The outlook for 2008 through 2009 looks somewhat grim for wheat, as outside pressures of the global economy continue and the projected record wheat crop drives prices further down.

Along with U.S. wheat production, Canada is raising its wheat production forecast, as are many other countries.

Much of that is because of increased number of acres being planted in wheat as well as expected good weather conditions.

On the Chicago Board of Trade December wheat dropped by 45 cents to $5.95 1/4 a bushel for December. December wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade fell 42 1/4 cents to $6.28 1/4 a bushel, while December wheat declined by 38 cents to $6.64 3/4 on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.

Wheat Joins Commodity Rally as Investors Flee Equities

With the U.S. dollar falling and investors fleeing equities, the commodity market surged today as many of the dollar-denominated commodities enjoyed a significant uptick. Wheat was part of the swing.

Wheat futures in the U.S. increased by 5 percent Wednesday, moving up from its lowest level in over a year.

December wheat futures on the CBOT ended at $7.25-3/4 a bushel, up 35-3/4 cents, a 5.18 percent move upwards.

Even the news that Egypt decided to buy 205,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine and Russia wasn't enough to pressure the grain, as numerous economic factors lined up to give it a solid push forward.

High global wheat inventories have been putting downward pressure on wheat prices recently.

Australia Should Still have Bumper Wheat Crop in Spite of Drought

Even though some areas in Australia may experience a drop in wheat production because of an ongoing drought, overall the country is expected to enjoy a huge increase in exports in contrast to previous years.

The USDA projects about a 25 million ton harvest in 2008-09, in comparison to 13 million tons in 2007. That amount (25 million tons) is expected to be revised down in the next USDA report. Even so, Russell Phillips, general manager, Australian department of agriculture, fisheries and forestry, said he thinks the country could end up exporting about 16 million tons this year.

The new Australian export regulator, Wheat Exports Australia (WEA), has accredited five companies for exports so far, as Cargill Australia Ltd, Elders Toepfer Grain Pty Ltd, Goodman Fielder Consumer Foods Pty Ltd, Grain Pool Pty Ltd and OzEpulse Pty Ltd made the first cut.

Former export regulator Australian Wheat Board (AWB) was replaced after a scandal caused them to be replaced. Still, they have applied to the WEA for accreditation this week and are waiting for a reply. The AWB was cited for taking illicit payments from the former Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein.

Globally, wheat is expected to reach record levels of 670.8 million tons by May 31, 2009, up by 9.9 percent over last year. Stockpiles could surge by 18 percent to 136.2 million tons, according to the USDA.

Wheat Outlook and News

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Manitoba crop report: showers delay harvest

Exports of cereals (Romania) climb to 132 million euros

Wheat Crop 62 Percent in, Compared to 67 Percent Last Year

The winter wheat harvest has fallen behind last years pace, as the USDA reports as of Sunday, only 62 percent is in the bins, while last year at the same time 67 percent had been stored.

It is also significantly below the 5-year average of 70 percent. The good news is it did increase by 10 percent over last week.

Wheat Climbs for First Time in Four Days

For the first time in four days, wheat increased in price, as investors think importers may start to increase acquisitions from the U.S. as wheat prices fave declined.

On Thursday the grain fell to $7.765 a bushel, the lowest price since November 20, 2007. It's also down over 40 percent in price from the record it attained in the latter part of February.

"Below $8 a bushel, we may see some buying interest from importers, who have been delaying purchases," said Kenji Kobayashi, a grain analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management Co.

Sales of U.S. wheat grew by 12 percent this week over last week, as they increased to 176,100 metric tons for the week ending April 24, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

July delivery for wheat gained 2.5 cents, to reach $7.925 a bushel, as of 3:28 p.m. Singapore time. It gravitated from $7.90 and $7.9525 in CBOT after-hours trading.

Even with recent price decreases, wheat is still up by over 65 percent over last year. It reached a high of $13.495 on February 27 before falling back.

Wheat Down 40 Percent from February High

Since the record price of wheat in February, prices have continued to fall as an expected large harvest has caused the golden grain to fall by 40 percent since the $13.50 a bushel record.

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat has plunged to $8.01 a bushel, the lowest since November 2007.

According to the International Grain Council, wheat will probably reach a record harvest of 645 million tons in 2008-09.

"The big rise in prices in 2007 and early 2008 was a strong incentive to increase the planting of wheat," said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an agricultural analyst at Barclays Bank.

"The market is pricing-in expectations of a bigger crop from summer onwards."

Government subidies by the U.S. and Europe for corn-based ethanol has been a major contributor to the price increases, as farmers over the last several years have taken acreage out of wheat production and put it into corn.

Wheat farmers will probably be a year too late to get the huge prices, as their huge harvest will cause price decreases, as is already being factored into the market.

Global Wheat Production Expect to Increase 6%

A report from Utrecht, Netherlands-based Rabobank, says the global production for wheat should increase by 6 percent this year, making it a record harvest globally.

Motivating the higher output is the increasing prices of the commodity, based on growing food demand, investors, biofuels and feed for animals. Stockpiles around the world also plunged last year causing the grain to increase in price as well.

"Wheat production is forecast to rebound strongly, resulting in a partial recovery in world inventory levels and taking some pressure off world prices,' a team of analysts in Sydney, Australia, wrote in the report.
It is expected the harvest will bring in an additional 37 million metric tons to bring the total for the the year to 640 million tons. Stockpiles around the world should grow by 9 percent as a result.

This should help bring prices down during the second half of 2008 said the report, as production grows beyond demand by about 12 million tons.

Nations Continue to buy Domestic Wheat to Combat Inflation, High Food Prices

Nations continue to acquire domestic wheat from their farmers in an effort to boost reserves as food prices wreak havoc across the world.

India has bought 7 percent more wheat than usual from its domestic farmers, in an effort to combat inflation, which has reached a three-year high in the country. A number of state firms bought a combined 3.1 million metric tons of wheat from farmers since April 1. Eventually the figure may reach as high as 15 million tons, according to Food Corp. Chairman Alok Sinha.

Inflation for India has climbed to 7.14 percent over the same week a year ago.

Kazakhstan also announced today that they have instituted a four-month ban on wheat exports, also in an attempt to curb inflation and social unrest. While that would help Kazakhstan, it could hurt other nations in the region which have traditionally relied on Kazakh wheat.

U.S. Wheat Closes Mixed - Weather, Nearby Markets Key Factors

U.S. wheat borrowed from its commodity neighbors corn and soybeans on the CBOT, helping it to gains, even though it was the "the weakest link in there, of all the grains," said Larry Glenn, owner of Glenn Commodities. "It's been following."

On the Chicago Board of Trade, May wheat remained at $9.34 a bushel. Minneapolis Grain Exchange May wheat ended at $13.20, a 5 cent increase, and May Wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade settled 1 cent higher.

Continued forecasts of rain for the U.S. plains dampened expectations for a large, new crop, causing wheat to pull back from its borrowed surge earlier in the day.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, expected supply and demand continues on course U.S wheat carryout, and remains at 242 million bushels; the same as in March.

Some analysts said the data from the USDA had no significant impact on the wheat markets, as weather, along with nearby markets are the what's affecting the wheat market more than anything else.

Another key factor is the expected huge global harvest this year, which could also hinder prices. Others think importers may keep old wheat inventory minimized, while waiting for the new crop to enter the market.