Higher than normal level of toxins are slashing the income of some farmers in Ohio.
According to representatives of the Ohio State University Extension Service, vomitoxin levels are the worst in seven to ten years in some areas of the state, especially areas where it's cooler and wet.
A wet May in particular produced conditions for the fungus to thrive.
The high levels of toxins limit the use of wheat for people, and also in livestock, especially pigs, which could cause a lot of problems in them.
Showing posts with label Wheat Ending Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wheat Ending Stocks. Show all posts
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Saturday, December 13, 2008
World Agricultural Wheat Supply and Demand Estimates
United States Department of Agriculture
Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE-465 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2008
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008/09 are raised 20 million bushels this month on higher imports and lower food use. Wheat imports are projected 10 million bushels higher as abundant foreign supplies of feed quality wheat and extremely low ocean freight rates provide incentives to import wheat for domestic feeding. Wheat food use is projected 10 million bushels lower based on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Bureau of Census. High flour extraction rates are limiting year-toyear growth in wheat-milling use. By-class changes to imports and exports are also made this month reflecting the pace of shipments to date. The all-wheat season-average farm price is projected 15 cents lower on both ends of the range to $6.40 to $7.00 per bushel. Global 2008/09 wheat production is projected at 684.0 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month. Increases for Canada, Brazil, EU-27, and Serbia more than offset a reduction for Argentina. Production for Canada is raised 1.3 million tons in line with the latest estimates from Statistics Canada.
Brazil production is raised 0.4 million tons based on recent government estimates that indicate higher production despite excessive rains during harvest. Production is raised 0.3 million tons for EU-27 with an increase for the United Kingdom which also experienced heavy harvest time rains that raised uncertainty about final yields.
Production is raised 0.1 million tons for Serbia. Production for Argentina is cut 0.5million tons as harvest results indicate substantial yield variability and reductions caused by extended dryness over the past few months. World wheat imports and exports for 2008/09 are both lowered slightly this month. Imports are lowered as the increase in U.S. imports is more than offset by 0.2- million- ton reductions for both Malaysia and Vietnam. Exports are lowered as a 0.5-million-ton increase for Canada is more than offset by 0.5 million ton reductions for both Argentina and Australia. Exports are also lowered 0.1 million tons for Malaysia as reduced imports lower flour export prospects.
World wheat consumption for 2008/09 is lowered this month mostly reflecting the reduction in U.S. wheat food use. Global wheat feeding is increased 0.3 million tons with increases for Australia and Brazil. Untimely harvest rains in eastern Australia and Brazil have reduced wheat quality in both countries. Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected wheat feed use in Vietnam with reduced imports.
Global ending stocks are raised 2.1 million tons this month. Nearly two-thirds of the increase is in North America with Canada and U.S. stocks projected 0.8 million tons and 0.5 million tons higher, respectively.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
EDWARD T. SCHAFER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE-465 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2008
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008/09 are raised 20 million bushels this month on higher imports and lower food use. Wheat imports are projected 10 million bushels higher as abundant foreign supplies of feed quality wheat and extremely low ocean freight rates provide incentives to import wheat for domestic feeding. Wheat food use is projected 10 million bushels lower based on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Bureau of Census. High flour extraction rates are limiting year-toyear growth in wheat-milling use. By-class changes to imports and exports are also made this month reflecting the pace of shipments to date. The all-wheat season-average farm price is projected 15 cents lower on both ends of the range to $6.40 to $7.00 per bushel. Global 2008/09 wheat production is projected at 684.0 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month. Increases for Canada, Brazil, EU-27, and Serbia more than offset a reduction for Argentina. Production for Canada is raised 1.3 million tons in line with the latest estimates from Statistics Canada.
Brazil production is raised 0.4 million tons based on recent government estimates that indicate higher production despite excessive rains during harvest. Production is raised 0.3 million tons for EU-27 with an increase for the United Kingdom which also experienced heavy harvest time rains that raised uncertainty about final yields.
Production is raised 0.1 million tons for Serbia. Production for Argentina is cut 0.5million tons as harvest results indicate substantial yield variability and reductions caused by extended dryness over the past few months. World wheat imports and exports for 2008/09 are both lowered slightly this month. Imports are lowered as the increase in U.S. imports is more than offset by 0.2- million- ton reductions for both Malaysia and Vietnam. Exports are lowered as a 0.5-million-ton increase for Canada is more than offset by 0.5 million ton reductions for both Argentina and Australia. Exports are also lowered 0.1 million tons for Malaysia as reduced imports lower flour export prospects.
World wheat consumption for 2008/09 is lowered this month mostly reflecting the reduction in U.S. wheat food use. Global wheat feeding is increased 0.3 million tons with increases for Australia and Brazil. Untimely harvest rains in eastern Australia and Brazil have reduced wheat quality in both countries. Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected wheat feed use in Vietnam with reduced imports.
Global ending stocks are raised 2.1 million tons this month. Nearly two-thirds of the increase is in North America with Canada and U.S. stocks projected 0.8 million tons and 0.5 million tons higher, respectively.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
EDWARD T. SCHAFER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Wheat Harvest Already Breaks Record
Even though South Africa, Australia and Argentina haven't harvested their wheat yet, current wheat harvests around the world have already broken a global record.
Over the last three years worldwide consumption has been 22.9, 22.7, and 22.7 billion bushels. So far this year 23.3 billion bushels have been harvested.
If consumption is similar to the past years, we'll see ending stocks increase by about 900 million bushels.
Projections for wheat use in 2008-2009 are at close to 24.1 billion bushels. After South Africa, Australia and Argentina harvest their wheat, supply is expected to come in at around 25 billion bushels.
With farmers belatedly planting more wheat because of past performance, it has caused this surge of supply. Now with prices falling because of so much product, wheat production costs are higher than what wheat prices can bring.
Many wheat farmers need to understand that when a great year just ends, it probably is a signal that the next year will end up just like this one, as the obvious knee jerk reaction of planting more acres will happen, which will drive down prices.
Those investing in wheat also need to take this into account.
Over the last three years worldwide consumption has been 22.9, 22.7, and 22.7 billion bushels. So far this year 23.3 billion bushels have been harvested.
If consumption is similar to the past years, we'll see ending stocks increase by about 900 million bushels.
Projections for wheat use in 2008-2009 are at close to 24.1 billion bushels. After South Africa, Australia and Argentina harvest their wheat, supply is expected to come in at around 25 billion bushels.
With farmers belatedly planting more wheat because of past performance, it has caused this surge of supply. Now with prices falling because of so much product, wheat production costs are higher than what wheat prices can bring.
Many wheat farmers need to understand that when a great year just ends, it probably is a signal that the next year will end up just like this one, as the obvious knee jerk reaction of planting more acres will happen, which will drive down prices.
Those investing in wheat also need to take this into account.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Where is Wheat Price Per Bushel Going in 2009
Wheat ending stocks for 2008-2009 are slightly higher than trade estimates of 594 million-bushel-average, as well as the 601 million-bushel average the USDA projected for October.
The overall global wheat production has risen, while some individual countries fluctuate. Argentina for example announced its production fell by 1 million metric tons to 11 million, while India has had such a good wheat harvest this year they're making two million tons of available for export.
Wheat supplies will also put competitive pressure on corn because of the large supply this year.
Because of the huge supply, there won't be much happening with wheat that will surprise anyone.
As far as prices, soft red winter wheat has "the most downside room; some of better classes can hold in a bit more strongly."
The global wheat market will continue to be bearish, even as drought conditions pressure certain countries like the Phillipines, Argentina and most recently China. Even with that pressure, the price for wheat per bushel in 2009 shouldn't be affected too much, and it shouldn't be counted on to push up wheat prices a bushel anytime soon.
There will be plenty of wheat for sale, and that will keep wheat prices per barrel down, as the huge wheat surplus this year, especially in the European Union and Black Sea region being major contributing factors. There has also been a huge wheat crop in Canada this year to add to the overall wheat picture.
Considering India wheat being so prolific this year as well, and you see how wheat prices per barrel in 2009 will struggle to rise, even when you take into account quality wheat. In these types of economic downturns, survival is more important than the protein content of wheat, and being able to afford the cost of food in general, and wheat in particular is the guiding factor behind where prices of wheat per barrel will lead to.
It's hard to tell how much wheat will be planted in 2009 as well, with fertilizer costs playing a big factor in the decision of whether to plant, and if wheat is planted, how much fertilizer can be used for the wheat and still be cost effective. Fertilizer prices have gone down some, but low wheat prices per barrel make it difficult to top dress wheat with nitrogen fertilizer and still be profitable in a meaningful way for those putting their wheat up for sale.
The most recent projections for wheat exports from the USDA stand at 210 million bushels, an extraordinary third less than 2008. And as of January 1, wheat sales have plunged by close to 40 percent, with only 158 million bushels sold in the U.S.
While there is some opportunity for wheat exports and wheat prices per barrel to rise in 2009, it will depend mostly on weather conditions for the U.S. wheat crop, along with the number of acres planted after a fairly poor year. The high protein sector may offer some opportunity for U.S. farmers, but wheat quality from other countries, and the above-mentioned factors will determine the price per bushel of wheat in 2009. There's no way of knowing at this time where all this will head, as weather is the key factor, and that of course has yet to be played out. Other countries have suffered quality wheat production, which could help wheat prices per bushel rise, but that will highly depend on the quality of wheat produced in the U.S., which again, will be determined by the weather conditions in the spring months of 2009.
The overall global wheat production has risen, while some individual countries fluctuate. Argentina for example announced its production fell by 1 million metric tons to 11 million, while India has had such a good wheat harvest this year they're making two million tons of available for export.
Wheat supplies will also put competitive pressure on corn because of the large supply this year.
Because of the huge supply, there won't be much happening with wheat that will surprise anyone.
As far as prices, soft red winter wheat has "the most downside room; some of better classes can hold in a bit more strongly."
The global wheat market will continue to be bearish, even as drought conditions pressure certain countries like the Phillipines, Argentina and most recently China. Even with that pressure, the price for wheat per bushel in 2009 shouldn't be affected too much, and it shouldn't be counted on to push up wheat prices a bushel anytime soon.
There will be plenty of wheat for sale, and that will keep wheat prices per barrel down, as the huge wheat surplus this year, especially in the European Union and Black Sea region being major contributing factors. There has also been a huge wheat crop in Canada this year to add to the overall wheat picture.
Considering India wheat being so prolific this year as well, and you see how wheat prices per barrel in 2009 will struggle to rise, even when you take into account quality wheat. In these types of economic downturns, survival is more important than the protein content of wheat, and being able to afford the cost of food in general, and wheat in particular is the guiding factor behind where prices of wheat per barrel will lead to.
It's hard to tell how much wheat will be planted in 2009 as well, with fertilizer costs playing a big factor in the decision of whether to plant, and if wheat is planted, how much fertilizer can be used for the wheat and still be cost effective. Fertilizer prices have gone down some, but low wheat prices per barrel make it difficult to top dress wheat with nitrogen fertilizer and still be profitable in a meaningful way for those putting their wheat up for sale.
The most recent projections for wheat exports from the USDA stand at 210 million bushels, an extraordinary third less than 2008. And as of January 1, wheat sales have plunged by close to 40 percent, with only 158 million bushels sold in the U.S.
While there is some opportunity for wheat exports and wheat prices per barrel to rise in 2009, it will depend mostly on weather conditions for the U.S. wheat crop, along with the number of acres planted after a fairly poor year. The high protein sector may offer some opportunity for U.S. farmers, but wheat quality from other countries, and the above-mentioned factors will determine the price per bushel of wheat in 2009. There's no way of knowing at this time where all this will head, as weather is the key factor, and that of course has yet to be played out. Other countries have suffered quality wheat production, which could help wheat prices per bushel rise, but that will highly depend on the quality of wheat produced in the U.S., which again, will be determined by the weather conditions in the spring months of 2009.
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