Cold Weather Drives Up Weekly Wheat Prices

With the bulls concerned over the first strong cold weather of the season possibly may damage the dormant wheat crops, prices for the week ended up.

Even though Friday prices were softer, the overall week had KCBT wheat rising by 44.75 cents to $5.83 a bushel, MGE grew by 35.25 cents to $6.2525 a bushel and March CBOT led them all, gaining 50.25 cents to finish the week at $5.6325.

Although there was worries over the weather, a number of meteorologists suggested the cold spell probably wouldn't do enough damage to the crops to make much of a difference. Even so, prices rose on the possibility.

Weather will be especially rough in the central and southern Plains, with below-zero forecasts in the mix. Some of the concern was directed to areas that had little or no snow to protect from the bitterly cold temperatures.

Of course it won't be known until the spring if the dormant crop really had any damage to it, so it's a wait-and-see game at this time.

Spring wheat traded on the MGE hasn't been planted yet.

US Wheat Follows Other Commodities Down

With no fresh news on underlying wheat fundamentals, the grain followed other commodities down based on the unsurety of the economic bailout of the financial sector in the U.S.

December wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 20 1/4 cents to $7.16 a bushel as investors held back with the weekend coming up and the economic uncertainty.

The Kansas City Board of Trade followed suit as it came under pressure as well. December wheat fell by 19 1/2 cents to $7.16 a bushel.

There were also concerns about demand needing to increase after Egypt and Iran decided to acquire wheat from Russia this week.

As usual, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange followed in the footsteps of its CBOT cousin, also experiencing a decline to $7.89 3/4 a bushel, a 16-cent fall.

Traders are looking for direction from the quarterly grain stocks and small grain reports by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 8:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Although an estimate, it'll help give a better picture on the actual usage of the grain.

It is thought at this time that the report will say wheat production for August fell from the expected 2.462 billion bushels originally estimated to 2.459 billion bushels.

Wheat Climbs to Eight-week High On Weak Dollar, Surge in Crude Oil

Wheat enjoyed a comeback on Thursday, as it reached an eight-week high, as crude oil helped lift it up, along with a weakening U.S. dollar. Corn and soybean increases also helped push the commodity upwards.

On the CBOT, December wheat ended the session up 22 3/4 cents at $9.22 1/4 a bushel. December wheat at the Kansas City Board of Trade finished at 23 1/2 cents higher at $9.50 3/4, while December wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange ended the session at $9.82 1/4, a 27 1/4 cent increase.

U.S. wheat export demand should remain strong, as weekly export sales for 2008-09 for the U.S. is at a marketing year high of 916,500 tons. The average of 522 million bushels of export wheat sales is about 10 percent above the five-year average. Wheat shipments are running at about 37 percent higher than the five-year average.

CBOT September Wheat Drops 14 1/4 cents to $7.65 3/4 a Bushel

Even though wheat partook in the plunge in prices of crop cousins soybeans and corn, it still held up pretty good taking all factors into consideration.

September wheat on the CBOT dropped by 14 1/4 cents to $7.65 3/4 a bushel, while Kansas City Board of Trade September wheat dropped 10 1/2 cents to $7.96, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange September wheat rose 1/2 cent to $8.53 3/4.

There were about 3,000 wheat contracts that sold on the CBOT today.

"I think, technically, it's acting fairly well," Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management, said of wheat. "I would attribute most of the selling to fund-type liquidation."

As far as their companion crops, November soybeans fell 47 cents to $12.22, while December corn declined 17 1/4 cents to $5.27 3/4.

Kansas City Board Of Trade Wheat Volume Third Largest In July

The Kansas City Board of Trade trading volume for the month of July ended at 300,025 contracts in the hard red winter wheat futures contract, which makes it the third-largest trading volume for the month of July, although far behind 407,032 contracts in 2007 and 377,494 contracts in 2006.

Price volatility continues, as during the month of July, the nearby contract traded in a range of 98 cents, as low as $8.07 and as high as $9.05. During that same period of time in 2007, the price range was 83 1/2 cents, with lows reaching $5.73 and highs $6.56 1/2. On Monday, the USDA projected the hard red winter wheat harvest was 79 percent complete. KCBT floor traders think it's a little further along, estimating HRW wheat harvest at 80 to 85 percent complete.

U.S. Wheat Closes Mixed - Weather, Nearby Markets Key Factors

U.S. wheat borrowed from its commodity neighbors corn and soybeans on the CBOT, helping it to gains, even though it was the "the weakest link in there, of all the grains," said Larry Glenn, owner of Glenn Commodities. "It's been following."

On the Chicago Board of Trade, May wheat remained at $9.34 a bushel. Minneapolis Grain Exchange May wheat ended at $13.20, a 5 cent increase, and May Wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade settled 1 cent higher.

Continued forecasts of rain for the U.S. plains dampened expectations for a large, new crop, causing wheat to pull back from its borrowed surge earlier in the day.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, expected supply and demand continues on course U.S wheat carryout, and remains at 242 million bushels; the same as in March.

Some analysts said the data from the USDA had no significant impact on the wheat markets, as weather, along with nearby markets are the what's affecting the wheat market more than anything else.

Another key factor is the expected huge global harvest this year, which could also hinder prices. Others think importers may keep old wheat inventory minimized, while waiting for the new crop to enter the market.

Effective Date for Price Limit Rules on the Kansas City Board of Trace Wheat is March 28, 2008

On Friday, March 28, it needs to be remembered that the Kansas City Board of Trade has been given approval by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to change the daily price limits for hard red winter wheat options and futures.

Since it's the effective business date, it entails the evening session on Thursday, March 27, 2008.

The press release said:

"The initial daily price limit for wheat remains at 60 cents per bushel and will increase by 50 percent the following trading session when the price of two or more futures contract months within the first five listed non-spot contract months, or the final contract month of a crop year, closes at limit bid or limit offer. Price limits can expand two consecutive times: to a 90 cent per bushel limit and then to a maximum $1.35 per bushel limit.

"Daily price limits will step back to their prior levels when no futures contract month closes at limit bid or limit offer that day. If price limits are $1.35 per bushel and no wheat futures contract month closes limit bid or limit offer, daily price limits for all contract months revert back to 90 cents per bushel the next business day. If price limits are 90 cents per bushel and no wheat futures contract month closes limit bid or limit offer, daily price limits for all contract months revert back to 60 cents per bushel the next business day. The CME Group is adopting the same price limits policy for its wheat contracts.

"Following the expanded price limits effective trade date February 11, market users asked for additional changes. Market users wanted to see: price limit provisions that expand based on the activity of the front months where the majority of open interest resides, a maximum amount that price limits can expand to, and provisions that allow price limits to contract at the same rate that they expand. These changes address all three of these concerns.

"Options pricing is subject to the same daily price limits as the underlying futures contract."