World Agricultural Wheat Supply and Demand Estimates

United States Department of Agriculture
Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE-465 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2008


WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008/09 are raised 20 million bushels this month on higher imports and lower food use. Wheat imports are projected 10 million bushels higher as abundant foreign supplies of feed quality wheat and extremely low ocean freight rates provide incentives to import wheat for domestic feeding. Wheat food use is projected 10 million bushels lower based on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Bureau of Census. High flour extraction rates are limiting year-toyear growth in wheat-milling use. By-class changes to imports and exports are also made this month reflecting the pace of shipments to date. The all-wheat season-average farm price is projected 15 cents lower on both ends of the range to $6.40 to $7.00 per bushel. Global 2008/09 wheat production is projected at 684.0 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month. Increases for Canada, Brazil, EU-27, and Serbia more than offset a reduction for Argentina. Production for Canada is raised 1.3 million tons in line with the latest estimates from Statistics Canada.

Brazil production is raised 0.4 million tons based on recent government estimates that indicate higher production despite excessive rains during harvest. Production is raised 0.3 million tons for EU-27 with an increase for the United Kingdom which also experienced heavy harvest time rains that raised uncertainty about final yields.

Production is raised 0.1 million tons for Serbia. Production for Argentina is cut 0.5million tons as harvest results indicate substantial yield variability and reductions caused by extended dryness over the past few months. World wheat imports and exports for 2008/09 are both lowered slightly this month. Imports are lowered as the increase in U.S. imports is more than offset by 0.2- million- ton reductions for both Malaysia and Vietnam. Exports are lowered as a 0.5-million-ton increase for Canada is more than offset by 0.5 million ton reductions for both Argentina and Australia. Exports are also lowered 0.1 million tons for Malaysia as reduced imports lower flour export prospects.

World wheat consumption for 2008/09 is lowered this month mostly reflecting the reduction in U.S. wheat food use. Global wheat feeding is increased 0.3 million tons with increases for Australia and Brazil. Untimely harvest rains in eastern Australia and Brazil have reduced wheat quality in both countries. Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected wheat feed use in Vietnam with reduced imports.

Global ending stocks are raised 2.1 million tons this month. Nearly two-thirds of the increase is in North America with Canada and U.S. stocks projected 0.8 million tons and 0.5 million tons higher, respectively.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.

APPROVED BY:
EDWARD T. SCHAFER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE