Friday, December 26, 2008

DJ US Export Sales: Commodity Highlights - Dec 26

Kansas City, Dec 26, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- USDA Thursday released the following export highlights in its Export Sales report for week ended Dec 18.

Wheat: Net sales of 253,600 metric tons were down 3 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (58,600 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Taiwan (56,000 MT), Japan (53,700 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT, including 30,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Yemen (28,000 MT), and South Korea (23,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (50,800 MT) and Spain (40,000 MT). Exports of 290,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 30 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (96,900 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Japan (46,500 MT), Guatemala (30,900 MT), Morocco (19,600 MT), and Colombia (15,400 MT).

Corn: Net sales of 551,400 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (263,900 MT), Taiwan (90,500 MT, including 79,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (81,000 MT), Venezuela (80,000 MT), Guatemala (22,400 MT), and Syria (18,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for South Korea (24,600 MT), Egypt (16,300 MT), unknown destinations (12,000 MT), and Colombia (5,800 MT). Exports of 831,300 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (289,200 MT), Mexico (119,000 MT), Taiwan (117,200 MT), South Korea (114,300 MT), Colombia (69,100 MT), Canada (28,900 MT), and Egypt (24,100 MT).

Barley: There were no sales reported during the week. Exports of 5,600 MT were for Japan (4,900 MT) and Mexico (700 MT).

Sorghum: Net sales of 88,900 MT were for Mexico. Exports of 12,800 MT were for Mexico (12,700 MT) and Canada (100 MT).

Rice: Net sales of 23,300 MT were down 77 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (20,000 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Jordan (600 MT), and the Bahamas (200 MT). Decreases were for Japan (600 MT). Exports of 61,800 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Costa Rica (33,000 MT), Mexico (16,500 MT), Canada (2,600 MT), Honduras (2,500 MT), South Korea (2,000 MT), Jordan (1,900 MT), and New Guinea (1,400 MT).

Soybeans: Net sales of 584,800 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (374,400 MT, including 167,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (129,800 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (114,500 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), and Taiwan (59,600 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from China), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (232,000 MT) and Morocco (23,800 MT). Net sales of 6,100 MT for 2009/10 delivery were for Japan. Exports of 951,500 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (609,200 MT), the Netherlands (129,800 MT), Japan (57,000 MT), Mexico (39,900 MT), Morocco (31,200 MT), Israel (23,300 MT), and Taiwan (23,000 MT).

Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 145,700 MT were up two and three-tenths times from the previous week and nearly two and two-fifths times from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (33,300 MT), Venezuela (23,000 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (16,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (15,700 MT), and Guatemala (11,900 MT). Exports of 229,700 MT were up 77 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (56,200 MT), Mexico (43,600 MT), Ecuador (27,400 MT), Canada (23,300 MT), Turkey (16,700 MT), and the Dominican Republic (16,300 MT).

Soybean Oil: Net sales of 5,400 MT were mainly for Canada (2,200 MT), Mexico (2,000 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), the Dominican Republic (300 MT), and Guatemala (200 MT). Decreases were for Saudi Arabia (100 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily Mexico (2,600 MT), Costa Rica (1,500 MT), El Salvador (800 MT), Canada (700 MT), Barbados (700 MT), and Nicaragua (600 MT).

Cotton: Net Upland sales of 118,900 running bales were up 52 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Turkey (26,700 RB), Morocco (17,100 RB), Indonesia (16,400 RB), China (13,700 RB), Bangladesh (10,200 RB), and Malaysia (9,700 RB), were partially offset by decreases for Pakistan (7,700 RB), El Salvador (1,900 RB), and unknown destinations (1,800 RB). Net sales of 1,000 RB for delivery in 2009/10 were for South Korea. Exports of 210,700 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (54,600 RB), Turkey (47,700 RB), Vietnam (29,500 RB), Mexico (12,600 RB), and Thailand (10,400 RB). Net American Pima Sales of 100 RB resulted as increases for Indonesia (600 RB), Thailand (400 RB), and Japan (400 RB), were partially offset by decreases for China (1,300 RB). Exports of 400 RB were for India.

Hides and Skins: Net sales of 689,400 pieces were up 7 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide sales of 719,500 pieces were primarily for China (352,900 pieces), South Korea (142,700 pieces), Taiwan (118,700 pieces), Mexico (30,300 pieces), and Japan (25,500 pieces). Exports of 455,700 pieces were up 12 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide exports of 443,400 pieces were primarily to China (224,300 pieces), South Korea (77,900 pieces), Thailand (39,500 pieces), Taiwan (34,800 pieces), and Mexico (27,100 pieces).

Net sales of 81,100 wet blues were down 9 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were mainly for Thailand (52,300 unsplit), Taiwan (28,400 unsplit), China (4,800 unsplit), Mexico (2,400 grain splits), and Hong Kong (1,800 unsplit). Exports of 78,800 hides were up 3 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (35,600 unsplit), Hong Kong (16,600 unsplit), Italy (14,700 unsplit), and Mexico (4,900 grain splits). Net sales of splits totaling 419,200 pounds were primarily for China (405,000 pounds). Exports of 128,200 pounds were down 63 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destination was China.

Beef: Net sales reductions of 6,200 MT resulted as increases for Mexico (1,900 MT), Canada (800 MT), and the Philippines (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for South Korea (7,100 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), Japan (600 MT), and Russia (400 MT). Net Sales of 13,000 MT for delivery in 2009 were primarily for South Korea (6,400 MT, switched from marketing year 2008), Vietnam (2,400 MT, including 900 MT switched from marketing year 2008), Mexico (2,400 MT), and Japan (1,100 MT, including 400 MT switched from marketing year 2008). Exports of 8,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (3,900 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), Japan (800 MT), South Korea (600 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT).

December 26, 2008

FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA
SUMMARY OF EXPORT TRANSACTIONS
Reported Under the Daily Reporting System
For Period Ending December 18, 2008
Commodity Destination Quantity (MT) Marketing
SOYBEANS 1/ CHINA 116,000 2008/09

1/ Export sales.

-By Valena Henderson; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5171;
csstat@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-26-08 0832ET
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Cold Weather Drives Up Weekly Wheat Prices

With the bulls concerned over the first strong cold weather of the season possibly may damage the dormant wheat crops, prices for the week ended up.

Even though Friday prices were softer, the overall week had KCBT wheat rising by 44.75 cents to $5.83 a bushel, MGE grew by 35.25 cents to $6.2525 a bushel and March CBOT led them all, gaining 50.25 cents to finish the week at $5.6325.

Although there was worries over the weather, a number of meteorologists suggested the cold spell probably wouldn't do enough damage to the crops to make much of a difference. Even so, prices rose on the possibility.

Weather will be especially rough in the central and southern Plains, with below-zero forecasts in the mix. Some of the concern was directed to areas that had little or no snow to protect from the bitterly cold temperatures.

Of course it won't be known until the spring if the dormant crop really had any damage to it, so it's a wait-and-see game at this time.

Spring wheat traded on the MGE hasn't been planted yet.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

World Agricultural Wheat Supply and Demand Estimates

United States Department of Agriculture
Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE-465 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2008


WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008/09 are raised 20 million bushels this month on higher imports and lower food use. Wheat imports are projected 10 million bushels higher as abundant foreign supplies of feed quality wheat and extremely low ocean freight rates provide incentives to import wheat for domestic feeding. Wheat food use is projected 10 million bushels lower based on the latest mill-grind data from the U.S. Bureau of Census. High flour extraction rates are limiting year-toyear growth in wheat-milling use. By-class changes to imports and exports are also made this month reflecting the pace of shipments to date. The all-wheat season-average farm price is projected 15 cents lower on both ends of the range to $6.40 to $7.00 per bushel. Global 2008/09 wheat production is projected at 684.0 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month. Increases for Canada, Brazil, EU-27, and Serbia more than offset a reduction for Argentina. Production for Canada is raised 1.3 million tons in line with the latest estimates from Statistics Canada.

Brazil production is raised 0.4 million tons based on recent government estimates that indicate higher production despite excessive rains during harvest. Production is raised 0.3 million tons for EU-27 with an increase for the United Kingdom which also experienced heavy harvest time rains that raised uncertainty about final yields.

Production is raised 0.1 million tons for Serbia. Production for Argentina is cut 0.5million tons as harvest results indicate substantial yield variability and reductions caused by extended dryness over the past few months. World wheat imports and exports for 2008/09 are both lowered slightly this month. Imports are lowered as the increase in U.S. imports is more than offset by 0.2- million- ton reductions for both Malaysia and Vietnam. Exports are lowered as a 0.5-million-ton increase for Canada is more than offset by 0.5 million ton reductions for both Argentina and Australia. Exports are also lowered 0.1 million tons for Malaysia as reduced imports lower flour export prospects.

World wheat consumption for 2008/09 is lowered this month mostly reflecting the reduction in U.S. wheat food use. Global wheat feeding is increased 0.3 million tons with increases for Australia and Brazil. Untimely harvest rains in eastern Australia and Brazil have reduced wheat quality in both countries. Partly offsetting is a reduction in expected wheat feed use in Vietnam with reduced imports.

Global ending stocks are raised 2.1 million tons this month. Nearly two-thirds of the increase is in North America with Canada and U.S. stocks projected 0.8 million tons and 0.5 million tons higher, respectively.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.

APPROVED BY:
EDWARD T. SCHAFER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Wheat Rises as Australian Harvest Delayed by Drought

Wheat rose today on news in a statement from the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics which said drought conditions could significantly delay the Australian wheat harvest, and also could have a detrimental effect on the quality of the grain produced.

This seems like it's only a upward blip in the road, as there's so much wheat available for export this year, any news will cause a slight upward movement for wheat.

The December crop report from the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics shows wheat exports for the country are expected to reach 12.3 million tons, a significant increase from the 7.5 million tons exported last year.

With Australia attempting to compete in the premium wheat market of Taiwan, this probably couldn't have come at a worse time.

At 10:30 a.m. today on the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for March delivery rose 2.5 pecent to $4.93 a bushel.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Australia Aiming to Compete in the Lucrative Taiwanese Premium Wheat Category

With record-setting wheat production this year, prices have been plummeting, putting pressure on the U.S., the world's largest exporter.

If that's not enough, the high-end wheat market is now receiving potentially more competition, as Taiwanese wheat importers are visiting Australia to get a first-hand look at how they produce, handle and transport their wheat.

AgFarm, an Australian grain trading specialist, is hosting the event, where seven flour millers from Taiwan observe the practices.

In a trial run last year, the Taiwanese flour mills imported 8,000 metric tons of high protein wheat.

Taiwan is known for its fickleness concerning quality standards of wheat, and the exercise is for the purpose of learning how Australian wheat producers can meet those rigid standards.

The reward is a premium price paid for meeting their specifications.

Historically, the U.S. has been the dominating force in this premium market, and it could signal a significant new competition if Taiwan is convinced Australia can consistently deliver the high quality, high protein wheats.

At this time there is no commitment from the Taiwanese, but after the tour AgFarm is hoping to secure orders for the wheat.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Wheat Harvest Already Breaks Record

Even though South Africa, Australia and Argentina haven't harvested their wheat yet, current wheat harvests around the world have already broken a global record.

Over the last three years worldwide consumption has been 22.9, 22.7, and 22.7 billion bushels. So far this year 23.3 billion bushels have been harvested.

If consumption is similar to the past years, we'll see ending stocks increase by about 900 million bushels.

Projections for wheat use in 2008-2009 are at close to 24.1 billion bushels. After South Africa, Australia and Argentina harvest their wheat, supply is expected to come in at around 25 billion bushels.

With farmers belatedly planting more wheat because of past performance, it has caused this surge of supply. Now with prices falling because of so much product, wheat production costs are higher than what wheat prices can bring.

Many wheat farmers need to understand that when a great year just ends, it probably is a signal that the next year will end up just like this one, as the obvious knee jerk reaction of planting more acres will happen, which will drive down prices.

Those investing in wheat also need to take this into account.

Friday, November 21, 2008

U.S. Could Land Some Wheat Export Business from Brazil

There are some things that would have to be overcome in order for Brazil to import some U.S. wheat this year; something that has become rare since the agreement between several South American countries to sell grain between countries with no duty attached to the deals.

While Argentina usually supplies the bulk of wheat to Brazil, this year their production has fallen drastically from last year's 16 million tons to only 10.1 million this year. Of that, last year 10.5 million tons were exported to Brazil, and this year projections are for only 5.8 million tons to be available.

The major disruptions causing the lackluster production for Argentina has been dry weather and less acreage planted in wheat.

A key factor the attractiveness of exporting to Brazil for the U.S. is if Brazil drops its import tax. The U.S. is able to send a high quality wheat with low freight charges, giving them an advantage over its competitors.

If that doesn't happen, U.S. wheat exports don't look too good.

With India making over 2 million extra tons of wheat available for export in their region, and Russia winning North Africa and Middle East contracts, it makes it harder for the U.S. to compete, as there's an abundance of wheat available because of the record crop this year.

The USDA is once again expected to drop its wheat export estimates over the next several months.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Proteome Systems Renamed Tyrian Diagnostics

Completes Transition to Biomarker Discovery and Diagnostic Test Development Company

SYDNEY, Australia, Nov 14, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Proteome Systems Ltd (ASX:PXL) (TDX Pending) announced today that shareholders have voted in favour of an official name change to Tyrian Diagnostics Limited. The Company's ASX code will change to "TDX" on November 19, 2008. "Over the past few years, the management team has focused on leveraging the Company's core strengths in the validation and development of biomarkers and diagnostic tests. The divestiture of the technology platform and an exit from the therapeutic business enabled the allocation of the appropriate resources to achieve corporate growth. This fundamental shift in strategy has prompted the name change, and we are pleased to have the support of our shareholders," said Jenny Harry, BSc, PhD, Chief Executive Officer.

Tyrian Diagnostics will host a conference call to provide an update on the Company's current programs and corporate development strategy. The call in the U.S. will take place on Monday, November 17, 2008 at 5:00pm EST, 2:00pm PST. Therefore, the call in Sydney will take place on Tuesday, November 18, 2008 at 9:00 am. Participants may join the call by dialling (877) 407-9210 in the U.S./Canada. Non-U.S. participants may access the call by dialling (201) 689-8049. Those interested in hearing management's discussion may also access a live webcast of the conference call on Tyrian's website at www.tyriandx.com.

A replay of this call will be available for one month by dialling (877) 660-6853 in the U.S./Canada. For Non-U.S. participants dial (201) 612-7415. When prompted, enter Account Number #286 and Conference ID #303767. The webcast will also be available via the Company's website.

About Tyrian Diagnostics

Tyrian Diagnostics (ASX:TDX) is a diagnostics company with expertise in biomarker discovery and validation and diagnostic test development and a core focus on respiratory and infectious diseases. In addition, Tyrian can partner in alternative fields given its capabilities to work across the entire spectrum of diagnostic test development -- from identification and isolation of biomarkers, point-of-need test design, clinical development or field testing to final product. Tyrian's product pipeline includes: WheatRite(R) for measuring wheat quality, which is partnered with BayerCropSciences; and DiagnostIQ(TM) for active tuberculosis, in collaboration with Becton Dickinson and Company.

Additional information about Tyrian Diagnostics can be found at www.tyriandx.com
SOURCE: Proteome Systems Limited
Tyrian Diagnostics
Dr Jenny Harry, CEO, +61 2 8877 8947
Mobile: 0417 428 290

Copyright Business Wire 2008

Monday, November 10, 2008

Where is Wheat Price Per Bushel Going in 2009

Wheat ending stocks for 2008-2009 are slightly higher than trade estimates of 594 million-bushel-average, as well as the 601 million-bushel average the USDA projected for October.

The overall global wheat production has risen, while some individual countries fluctuate. Argentina for example announced its production fell by 1 million metric tons to 11 million, while India has had such a good wheat harvest this year they're making two million tons of available for export.

Wheat supplies will also put competitive pressure on corn because of the large supply this year.

Because of the huge supply, there won't be much happening with wheat that will surprise anyone.

As far as prices, soft red winter wheat has "the most downside room; some of better classes can hold in a bit more strongly."

The global wheat market will continue to be bearish, even as drought conditions pressure certain countries like the Phillipines, Argentina and most recently China. Even with that pressure, the price for wheat per bushel in 2009 shouldn't be affected too much, and it shouldn't be counted on to push up wheat prices a bushel anytime soon.

There will be plenty of wheat for sale, and that will keep wheat prices per barrel down, as the huge wheat surplus this year, especially in the European Union and Black Sea region being major contributing factors. There has also been a huge wheat crop in Canada this year to add to the overall wheat picture.

Considering India wheat being so prolific this year as well, and you see how wheat prices per barrel in 2009 will struggle to rise, even when you take into account quality wheat. In these types of economic downturns, survival is more important than the protein content of wheat, and being able to afford the cost of food in general, and wheat in particular is the guiding factor behind where prices of wheat per barrel will lead to.

It's hard to tell how much wheat will be planted in 2009 as well, with fertilizer costs playing a big factor in the decision of whether to plant, and if wheat is planted, how much fertilizer can be used for the wheat and still be cost effective. Fertilizer prices have gone down some, but low wheat prices per barrel make it difficult to top dress wheat with nitrogen fertilizer and still be profitable in a meaningful way for those putting their wheat up for sale.

The most recent projections for wheat exports from the USDA stand at 210 million bushels, an extraordinary third less than 2008. And as of January 1, wheat sales have plunged by close to 40 percent, with only 158 million bushels sold in the U.S.

While there is some opportunity for wheat exports and wheat prices per barrel to rise in 2009, it will depend mostly on weather conditions for the U.S. wheat crop, along with the number of acres planted after a fairly poor year. The high protein sector may offer some opportunity for U.S. farmers, but wheat quality from other countries, and the above-mentioned factors will determine the price per bushel of wheat in 2009. There's no way of knowing at this time where all this will head, as weather is the key factor, and that of course has yet to be played out. Other countries have suffered quality wheat production, which could help wheat prices per bushel rise, but that will highly depend on the quality of wheat produced in the U.S., which again, will be determined by the weather conditions in the spring months of 2009.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Wheat Conference Tackles Wheat Stem Rust Ug99


Norman Borlaug


With concerns wheat stem rust Ug99 could decimate the grain around the world, the International Conference on Wheat Stem Rust Ug99 was held in New Delhi to look at the potential threat.

Dr. Norman Borlaug, who identified the potent danger in Ug99, talked to those attending via a video conference. He was one of the leaders in developing the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative (BGRI) in 2007. A number of universities, organizations and charities support BGRI, including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The results of the conference were to formulate the Delhi Declaration, whose purpose was to generate global cooperation and a unified plan of action.

While there are a lot of recommendations and preparations made, the question is how all of them will be implemented.

Ug99 was first found in a Uganda nursery in 1999 and has spread to a number of countries.

Good article explaining Ug99 here.

Friday, November 7, 2008

ConAgra Mills and MGP Ingredients sign flour supply agreement

Nov 07, 2008 (Datamonitor via COMTEX) -- ConAgra Mills, a brand of ConAgra Foods, and MGP Ingredients have signed a new, long-term flour supply agreement.

In line with this, MGP Ingredients (MGPI) will source flour for its value-added wheat protein and starch ingredients exclusively from ConAgra Mills.

As part of the agreement, ConAgra Mills will take over wheat sourcing, production, risk management, quality control, logistics and transportation for the MGPI raw material. ConAgra Mills will provide flour to MGPI from select facilities in its US mill manufacturing network.

Tim Newkirk, president and CEO of MGPI, said: "We will focus on customers and our core business moving forward. Our strategy is to outsource part of the production in an effort to counter the effects of high input costs and volatile grain markets. Very simply put, wheat milling as a component of our overall ingredient solutions value chain is not a step in which MGPI can uniquely create value."


http://www.datamonitor.com

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Wheat Drops to Lowest Level in Three Weeks

The price of wheat in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in three weeks as traders aren't optimistic about the comming Department of Agriculture report on export sales data.

Expectations are the global crop will dampen the demand for American wheat, as production has increased in emerging countries.

Wheat that was inspected for export from the U.S. came in at about 13.2 million bushels for the week ending October 30, a drop of about 40 percent from the week ending October 23.

India is especially making an impact on exports this year, as it announced it will probably make about 2 million tons available on the export market. India could end up with a record wheat crop this year of 78.5 million tons.

Worldwide wheat production through June 30 is projected to leap by 12 percent to a record 683 million metric tons. That's the equivalent of about 25.1 billion bushels.

Wheat for December delivery dropped to $5.372 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Good Condition of U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Causes Prices to Drop

The U.S. Department of Agriculture report was so good for wheat, that it has exceeded last year's condition by a whopping 55 percent for the same time frame.

As of October 26, 65 percent of winter wheat was in either good or excellent condition said the USDA report.

With the plethora of wheat available, wheat futures dropped 15.5 cents to $5.14 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Much of this abundance came because farmers saw the amazing price of $13.495 a bushel on February 27, and so planted far too much, thinking it would profit them. Unfortunately, they never seem to learn that once the price has elevated to such levels, there was no way it could continue on because of the obvious surge in planting, which would ultimately drive the prices down, as supply increased. That, of course, is what has happened.

Another key factor has been the abundance of rain, which along with the huge sowing, has produced a huge crop.

Global wheat harvests could increase by 11 percent to reach a record of 680.2 million tons. It's also estimated that stockpiles around the world could grow by 21 percent to 144.4 million tons, according to the USDA.

Friday, October 24, 2008

As Technology Improves, Better Wheat Varieties Developed Quicker

It wasn't too long ago that it took ten years for a new variety of wheat to move from the greenhouse to the fields. That has all changed now as wheat lines are able to be diagnosed much quicker than their past counterparts.

In simple terms, a scientist looks for what they call molecular markers, which are what is measured to determine if a particular trait desired by the breeder is inherent in the plant.

The reason this quickens the process is the plants can be weeded out at the lab level rather than the field test level, streamlining the process.

So what breeders do is use that information to decide what plants should go forward in the program.

To that end, Shiaoman Chao, a molecular geneticist at the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) laboratory at North Dakota State University, has put together a database on wheat molecular markers which will ultimately be put up on the GrainGenes Web site, where breeders will be able to search the database for information to help them decide which wheat lines they want to proceed with.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Wheat Foods Council Explores Pasta Around the Globe with 'World of Pastabilities'

Pasta recipes from North Africa to Russia celebrate World Pasta Day

PARKER, Colo., Oct 22, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- In celebration of World Pasta Day on Saturday, October 25th, the Wheat Foods Council explores pasta's global influence with World of Pastabilities. Beginning in October, people can get a "taste" of pasta in a variety of ethnic cuisines via educational information and authentic recipes for Italian, Mediterranean, Mexican, North African and Russian pasta dishes at http://www.wheatfoods.org.

"World of Pastabilities challenges people to think outside of what they traditionally consider pasta and discover how others around the world consume the popular grain food," said Marcia Scheideman M.S., R.D., president of the Wheat Foods Council. "No matter the country or cuisine, pasta is a nutritious, delicious and economically efficient food and a sizeable amount of that pasta is made with durum wheat grown right here in the United States."

At Wheat Foods, people can taste pasta as it is enjoyed in other countries and cultures through the following recipes: Spiced Couscous (North Africa), Shrimp Fideos Soup (Mexico), Sausage with Fettuccini (Italian), Pasta with Shrimp and Feta (Mediterranean) and Beef Stroganoff (Russian). Visitors will also find pasta information, including the wheat from which it is made, its history, nutritional content and proper preparation.

Pasta, an Italian word meaning paste, describes the various shapes and sizes of products made with flour and water. There are more than 600 pasta shapes worldwide, ranging from the tiny bead-like North African couscous, Greek-favored orzo and German spaetzle to the larger, ingredient-filled Italian ravioli, Asian wontons and Polish pierogis. With the highest per capita pasta consumption at 62 pounds, Italy is the country most commonly associated with pasta according to a 2006 survey conducted by Union of Organizations of Manufacturers of Pasta Products of the EU. The Italians are followed by Venezuela at 29 pounds, Tunisia at 26 pounds, Greece at 22 pounds, Switzerland 21 pounds and the United States at 20 pounds.

While opening eyes and mouths to pasta in other countries, the Wheat Foods Council also recognizes the important role America plays in pasta production. Much of the world's pasta is made from durum wheat flour. Durum is the hardest of the six classes of wheat grown in the United States and North Dakota leads the country in Durum production. Italy followed by Tunisia, Venezuela and Nigeria were the top importers of U.S. durum wheat in 2007.

"Durum is considered the gold standard for pasta production; the wheat kernel's density and high protein and gluten content result in firm pasta with consistent cooking quality," said Kyle Martin, communications director, North Dakota Wheat Commission. "This program teaches people about the origins and culinary diversity of a food that connects cuisines and cultures around the world. It's a true celebration of World Pasta Day."

About the Wheat Foods Council

The Wheat Foods Council is a nonprofit organization formed in 1972 to help increase public awareness of grains, complex carbohydrates and fiber as essential components of a healthful diet. The Council is supported voluntarily by wheat producers, millers, bakers, and related industries.

SOURCE Wheat Foods Council


Copyright (C) 2008 PR Newswire. All rights reserved

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Wheat Prices in European Union Fall on Recession Fears

Wheat prices in the European Union fell today, largely tracking the global markets and U.S. grain futures.

The emotional boost from the central banks' PR machine around the world is largely over, and even if bankruptcy on a global scale has been avoided, the fundamentals underlying the problem remain, and most commodities, including wheat, continue to feel the downward pressure as a result.

In Europe, November milling wheat futures dropped by 4 euros to 143.00 euros a ton, as of 1500 GMT on the Euronext.

Wheat futures in London fell as well, as the strength of the British pound against the U.S. dollar and euro is slowing down exports from the country. Wheat exports from Britain are down a huge 42 percent from last year, as competition, along with the stronger sterling hammers the export market.

Italy also experienced a significant drop in wheat prices, as they have fallen between 5-10 euros from last week's close.

There is an abundance of wheat, and that surplus, along with weaker demand, is pushing down prices.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

ICE Delisting Feed Wheat as of Thursday

Thursday will be the last day feed wheat will be offered ICE Futures Canada exchange, as the October 2008 contract on Thursday will be the last offered.

In place of the feed wheat contract, which simply drew little interest, the InterContinental Exchange (ICE), parent of ICE Futures Canada, suggests the transition to western barley futures instead, which closely mirror the Canadian domestic feed wheat market. It could be used as a hedge in place of feed wheat, suggests ICE.

Friday, October 10, 2008

U.S. Department of Agriculture's Supply/demand Report Raises 2008-09 Wheat Carryout Estimate

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply/demand report on wheat carryout surprised a number of industry analysts, as they were looking for carryout to fall, as overseas demand and increased usage for feed generated the assumption carryout would decrease.

On the contrary, government estimates for 2008-09 wheat carryout increased from 574 million bushels to 601 million.

The major reason for all this is even with increased demand and domestic usage, wheat production has been so high that it offset the other two factors.

With acreage for wheat use already expanded for the 2008-09 season based on high wheat prices, it will be a challenge to maintain those prices as production increases even more than this year.

According to the USDA, global wheat production is estimated at 680.2 million tons, a record crop.

All of this isn't a big surprise of course, as we all knew there was going to be a huge crop, the surprise is in the increase of the carryout rather than decline.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

New Gascoigne wheat Strain May Work Well in Dry Australian Climate

Australian farmers should have another arrow in their wheat quiver as a new variety named Gascoigne has been developed that has worked well in past trials.

According to CSIRO it will probably perform best in the south-east New South Wales area.

CSIRO wheat breeder Garry Rosewarne said:

"It topped two trial sites in a very dry environment, but we've also had this in trials in 2004 and 2005 when they were quite good years and it was also yielding very well then.

"It's also got quite a large seed size, so we think that's certainly an advantage, particularly in dry finishes where you might get a lot of screenings.

"And it seems to perform well against all of the three rusts; leaf rust, stripe rust and stem rust."

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

US Wheat Plunges on Economic Fears and Pressure

Commodities continue to take a beating as the markets worldwide become under increasing pressure. Wheat suffered along with most others as they tumbled on all the exchanges.

Along with the economic conditions, other factors were the stronger U.S. dollar and the drop in price of soybeans and corn. A stronger U.S. dollar makes investments in commodities less attractive to foreign traders.

The outlook for 2008 through 2009 looks somewhat grim for wheat, as outside pressures of the global economy continue and the projected record wheat crop drives prices further down.

Along with U.S. wheat production, Canada is raising its wheat production forecast, as are many other countries.

Much of that is because of increased number of acres being planted in wheat as well as expected good weather conditions.

On the Chicago Board of Trade December wheat dropped by 45 cents to $5.95 1/4 a bushel for December. December wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade fell 42 1/4 cents to $6.28 1/4 a bushel, while December wheat declined by 38 cents to $6.64 3/4 on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.

Friday, September 26, 2008

US Wheat Follows Other Commodities Down

With no fresh news on underlying wheat fundamentals, the grain followed other commodities down based on the unsurety of the economic bailout of the financial sector in the U.S.

December wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 20 1/4 cents to $7.16 a bushel as investors held back with the weekend coming up and the economic uncertainty.

The Kansas City Board of Trade followed suit as it came under pressure as well. December wheat fell by 19 1/2 cents to $7.16 a bushel.

There were also concerns about demand needing to increase after Egypt and Iran decided to acquire wheat from Russia this week.

As usual, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange followed in the footsteps of its CBOT cousin, also experiencing a decline to $7.89 3/4 a bushel, a 16-cent fall.

Traders are looking for direction from the quarterly grain stocks and small grain reports by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 8:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Although an estimate, it'll help give a better picture on the actual usage of the grain.

It is thought at this time that the report will say wheat production for August fell from the expected 2.462 billion bushels originally estimated to 2.459 billion bushels.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Wheat Joins Commodity Rally as Investors Flee Equities

With the U.S. dollar falling and investors fleeing equities, the commodity market surged today as many of the dollar-denominated commodities enjoyed a significant uptick. Wheat was part of the swing.

Wheat futures in the U.S. increased by 5 percent Wednesday, moving up from its lowest level in over a year.

December wheat futures on the CBOT ended at $7.25-3/4 a bushel, up 35-3/4 cents, a 5.18 percent move upwards.

Even the news that Egypt decided to buy 205,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine and Russia wasn't enough to pressure the grain, as numerous economic factors lined up to give it a solid push forward.

High global wheat inventories have been putting downward pressure on wheat prices recently.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Australia Should Still have Bumper Wheat Crop in Spite of Drought


Even though some areas in Australia may experience a drop in wheat production because of an ongoing drought, overall the country is expected to enjoy a huge increase in exports in contrast to previous years.

The USDA projects about a 25 million ton harvest in 2008-09, in comparison to 13 million tons in 2007. That amount (25 million tons) is expected to be revised down in the next USDA report. Even so, Russell Phillips, general manager, Australian department of agriculture, fisheries and forestry, said he thinks the country could end up exporting about 16 million tons this year.

The new Australian export regulator, Wheat Exports Australia (WEA), has accredited five companies for exports so far, as Cargill Australia Ltd, Elders Toepfer Grain Pty Ltd, Goodman Fielder Consumer Foods Pty Ltd, Grain Pool Pty Ltd and OzEpulse Pty Ltd made the first cut.

Former export regulator Australian Wheat Board (AWB) was replaced after a scandal caused them to be replaced. Still, they have applied to the WEA for accreditation this week and are waiting for a reply. The AWB was cited for taking illicit payments from the former Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein.

Globally, wheat is expected to reach record levels of 670.8 million tons by May 31, 2009, up by 9.9 percent over last year. Stockpiles could surge by 18 percent to 136.2 million tons, according to the USDA.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Wheat Climbs to Eight-week High On Weak Dollar, Surge in Crude Oil

Wheat enjoyed a comeback on Thursday, as it reached an eight-week high, as crude oil helped lift it up, along with a weakening U.S. dollar. Corn and soybean increases also helped push the commodity upwards.

On the CBOT, December wheat ended the session up 22 3/4 cents at $9.22 1/4 a bushel. December wheat at the Kansas City Board of Trade finished at 23 1/2 cents higher at $9.50 3/4, while December wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange ended the session at $9.82 1/4, a 27 1/4 cent increase.

U.S. wheat export demand should remain strong, as weekly export sales for 2008-09 for the U.S. is at a marketing year high of 916,500 tons. The average of 522 million bushels of export wheat sales is about 10 percent above the five-year average. Wheat shipments are running at about 37 percent higher than the five-year average.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Wheat Growers Facing Tough Cost-Control Challenges in 2009

The end of the huge profits for wheat producers may come to an end next year as skyrocketing prices of inputs, in the face of flattening prices, will challenge producers to manage their costs more efficiently than ever.

Prices of almost everything have increased significantly, including fuel, fertilizer, machinery, labor, crop insurance and seed. A number of these inputs have surged by almost 20 percent over the last year. If producers want to add land to the mix, prices have also increased by 19 percent over the last 12 months as well.

As of 2004, breakeven for wheat was around $4 a bushel, in 2009 it's projected to reach over $6.85 a bushel.

Who would have thought that the idea of $7.00 wheat would have profitability challenges, but in 2009 that's a distinct possibility and probability.

How and when producers buy and at what discount may be the difference between profits and losses next year.

Go here for costs and revenue of irrigated and dryland winter wheat over the last ten years, included the projections for 2009.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

CBOT September Wheat Drops 14 1/4 cents to $7.65 3/4 a Bushel

Even though wheat partook in the plunge in prices of crop cousins soybeans and corn, it still held up pretty good taking all factors into consideration.

September wheat on the CBOT dropped by 14 1/4 cents to $7.65 3/4 a bushel, while Kansas City Board of Trade September wheat dropped 10 1/2 cents to $7.96, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange September wheat rose 1/2 cent to $8.53 3/4.

There were about 3,000 wheat contracts that sold on the CBOT today.

"I think, technically, it's acting fairly well," Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management, said of wheat. "I would attribute most of the selling to fund-type liquidation."

As far as their companion crops, November soybeans fell 47 cents to $12.22, while December corn declined 17 1/4 cents to $5.27 3/4.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Kansas City Board Of Trade Wheat Volume Third Largest In July

The Kansas City Board of Trade trading volume for the month of July ended at 300,025 contracts in the hard red winter wheat futures contract, which makes it the third-largest trading volume for the month of July, although far behind 407,032 contracts in 2007 and 377,494 contracts in 2006.

Price volatility continues, as during the month of July, the nearby contract traded in a range of 98 cents, as low as $8.07 and as high as $9.05. During that same period of time in 2007, the price range was 83 1/2 cents, with lows reaching $5.73 and highs $6.56 1/2. On Monday, the USDA projected the hard red winter wheat harvest was 79 percent complete. KCBT floor traders think it's a little further along, estimating HRW wheat harvest at 80 to 85 percent complete.


Monday, July 14, 2008

Wheat Crop 62 Percent in, Compared to 67 Percent Last Year

The winter wheat harvest has fallen behind last years pace, as the USDA reports as of Sunday, only 62 percent is in the bins, while last year at the same time 67 percent had been stored.

It is also significantly below the 5-year average of 70 percent. The good news is it did increase by 10 percent over last week.

Friday, May 2, 2008

Wheat Climbs for First Time in Four Days

For the first time in four days, wheat increased in price, as investors think importers may start to increase acquisitions from the U.S. as wheat prices fave declined.

On Thursday the grain fell to $7.765 a bushel, the lowest price since November 20, 2007. It's also down over 40 percent in price from the record it attained in the latter part of February.

"Below $8 a bushel, we may see some buying interest from importers, who have been delaying purchases," said Kenji Kobayashi, a grain analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management Co.

Sales of U.S. wheat grew by 12 percent this week over last week, as they increased to 176,100 metric tons for the week ending April 24, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

July delivery for wheat gained 2.5 cents, to reach $7.925 a bushel, as of 3:28 p.m. Singapore time. It gravitated from $7.90 and $7.9525 in CBOT after-hours trading.

Even with recent price decreases, wheat is still up by over 65 percent over last year. It reached a high of $13.495 on February 27 before falling back.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Wheat Down 40 Percent from February High


Since the record price of wheat in February, prices have continued to fall as an expected large harvest has caused the golden grain to fall by 40 percent since the $13.50 a bushel record.

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat has plunged to $8.01 a bushel, the lowest since November 2007.

According to the International Grain Council, wheat will probably reach a record harvest of 645 million tons in 2008-09.

"The big rise in prices in 2007 and early 2008 was a strong incentive to increase the planting of wheat," said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an agricultural analyst at Barclays Bank.

"The market is pricing-in expectations of a bigger crop from summer onwards."

Government subidies by the U.S. and Europe for corn-based ethanol has been a major contributor to the price increases, as farmers over the last several years have taken acreage out of wheat production and put it into corn.

Wheat farmers will probably be a year too late to get the huge prices, as their huge harvest will cause price decreases, as is already being factored into the market.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Global Wheat Production Expect to Increase 6%

A report from Utrecht, Netherlands-based Rabobank, says the global production for wheat should increase by 6 percent this year, making it a record harvest globally.

Motivating the higher output is the increasing prices of the commodity, based on growing food demand, investors, biofuels and feed for animals. Stockpiles around the world also plunged last year causing the grain to increase in price as well.

"Wheat production is forecast to rebound strongly, resulting in a partial recovery in world inventory levels and taking some pressure off world prices,' a team of analysts in Sydney, Australia, wrote in the report.
It is expected the harvest will bring in an additional 37 million metric tons to bring the total for the the year to 640 million tons. Stockpiles around the world should grow by 9 percent as a result.

This should help bring prices down during the second half of 2008 said the report, as production grows beyond demand by about 12 million tons.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Nations Continue to buy Domestic Wheat to Combat Inflation, High Food Prices

Nations continue to acquire domestic wheat from their farmers in an effort to boost reserves as food prices wreak havoc across the world.

India has bought 7 percent more wheat than usual from its domestic farmers, in an effort to combat inflation, which has reached a three-year high in the country. A number of state firms bought a combined 3.1 million metric tons of wheat from farmers since April 1. Eventually the figure may reach as high as 15 million tons, according to Food Corp. Chairman Alok Sinha.

Inflation for India has climbed to 7.14 percent over the same week a year ago.

Kazakhstan also announced today that they have instituted a four-month ban on wheat exports, also in an attempt to curb inflation and social unrest. While that would help Kazakhstan, it could hurt other nations in the region which have traditionally relied on Kazakh wheat.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Wheat News Weekend Roundup

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Spring wheat market shows some recovery

Despite a slightly bearish Prospective Plantings Report, the spring wheat market showed signs of recovery in the days following.

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World Wheat Production Boosted This Month, Consumption Trimmed, & Stocks Raised

World wheat production in 2007/08 is projected up 1.7 million tons this month to 606.7 million. The major increase is for Ethiopia, up 1.2 million tons as very good rains boosted yields.

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Adani sees wheat output at over 75mt

A bigger wheat crop is crucial to efforts by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government to cool inflation that’s running at a three-year high before next year’s general elections.

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Scientists pit bacteria against fungi to protect wheat

Beneficial flower-dwelling bacteria could soon join the fight against Fusarium graminearum, the fungus that causes Fusarium head blight disease (scab) in wheat, barley and other cereal crops.

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Philippines Seeks Wheat Supplies After China Rebuff

The Philippines said China turned down a request to supply wheat, adding to concern that the world faces a worsening shortage of staple foods that has already driven grain prices to records.

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US Wheat Outlook: Seen Mixed On Overnight, CBOT Rebound

U.S. wheat futures are poised to start Friday's day session mixed, with Chicago Board of Trade contracts seen rising in a rebound from losses, traders said.

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Wednesday, April 9, 2008

U.S. Wheat Closes Mixed - Weather, Nearby Markets Key Factors

U.S. wheat borrowed from its commodity neighbors corn and soybeans on the CBOT, helping it to gains, even though it was the "the weakest link in there, of all the grains," said Larry Glenn, owner of Glenn Commodities. "It's been following."

On the Chicago Board of Trade, May wheat remained at $9.34 a bushel. Minneapolis Grain Exchange May wheat ended at $13.20, a 5 cent increase, and May Wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade settled 1 cent higher.

Continued forecasts of rain for the U.S. plains dampened expectations for a large, new crop, causing wheat to pull back from its borrowed surge earlier in the day.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, expected supply and demand continues on course U.S wheat carryout, and remains at 242 million bushels; the same as in March.

Some analysts said the data from the USDA had no significant impact on the wheat markets, as weather, along with nearby markets are the what's affecting the wheat market more than anything else.

Another key factor is the expected huge global harvest this year, which could also hinder prices. Others think importers may keep old wheat inventory minimized, while waiting for the new crop to enter the market.

Friday, April 4, 2008

The Weekend Wheat News

Wheat outlook and news


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Grant Given to Cornell to Fight Wheat Disease

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation awards Cornell $26.8 million.

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US Wheat Review: Up On Short-Covering; MGE May Rises Limit

U.S. wheat futures ended higher Friday on technical buying and short-covering, with the nearby Minneapolis Grain Exchange contract closing limit-up for the third consecutive day.

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Strength in beans and wheat could not rally corn

Wheat opened higher and closed sharply higher. Minneapolis wheat was limit up again and synthetically trading another $1 higher. This carried the HRW and SRW contracts sharply higher on the day.

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Wheat planting up; corn down

The release of the 2008 U.S. Department of Agriculture prospective planting report this week shows wheat acreage up and corn acreage down, which led at least one analyst to predict corn rationing.

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Triticum Mosaic Virus adds new wrinkle to wheat disease picture

Kansas wheat producers needing another reason to control volunteer wheat have a new reason for consideration. First found by Kansas State University researchers in 2006, a newly discovered virus affecting wheat was officially recognized and named Triticum Mosaic Virus in 2007.

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Wheat Jumps on Weather Concerns

Wheat prices shot up Friday as investors bet that a mix of wet and dry weather in wheat-growing U.S. states will damage crops and tighten supplies of the grain used to make bread, pasta and other foods.

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Wheat Acres

The USDA reported planting intention estimates on Monday, March 31. The highly anticipated report held little in the way of major surprises, but the current supply situation and high prices require market participants to look at this report with a great deal of scrutiny. While it appears the marketplace has quickly forgotten about the bearish aspects of the report, market participants will continue to measure factors such as domestic and global demand and weather problems against the potential wheat production set forth by this report.

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Wheat rated in mostly fair to good condition

Winter wheat was 9 percent pastured last week, with the crop rated in mostly fair to good condition.

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Thursday, April 3, 2008

Wheat Rises on Forecast for Dry Conditions in U.S. Great Plains

With dry weather expected to continue in the great plains, wheat rose for the second day in a row, as the winter crop is coming out of dormancy.

Both western Kansas and Texas, along with the Oklahoma Panhandle haven't received rain for two weeks, and there isn't any precipitation expected in the next five days either.

Meteorologists say the severe draught, which extends from Texas to the Canadian Prairies threatens the crop this year.

It is also expected that dry weather will expand to the central midwest from April through August, further disrupting wheat yields.

The U.S. Department of Agricultue said in a report on March 11 that global wheat inventories could fall to 110.4 million metric tons by May 31, with U.S. inventories possibly plunging by 6.6 million tons. That's a 47 percent drop from last year.

July delivery for wheat futures increased by 2 cents to reach $9.525 a bushel on the CBOT.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Wheat Futures Higher on Weather Concerns: both dry and wet

U.S. wheat futures finished higher at the exchanges, as they bounced back after the recent sell-offs, according to traders.

Contrary to the concerns over the wet acreage affecting planting of corn, wheat is having the opposite problem, as dry weather in key areas may end in the abandonment of wheat acreage in a number of places.

There were also concerns about some excess precipitation in soft winter wheat areas that could hinder planting.

For the Kansas City Board of Trade, May wheat increased by 36 cents to $9.86 a bushel, while the Minneapolis Grain Exchange May wheat increased by its allowable limit of 60 cents, to finish at $12.15. May wheat for the Chicago Board of Trade jumped by 41 1/2 cent to finish a $9.36 1/2.

Wheat inventory expectations and a possible large global planting had kept prices down for awhile.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Wheat Prices Drop as Dollar Strengthens


Wheat and other commodities continue to fall on the assumption the strengthening U.S. dollar and equities market will continue to rise.

Another variable is the increase in planting this year which could cause prices to fall in the long term.

"Some of the financial stocks look better, and some people feel that the worst is over" for the U.S. economy, said Vince Ambrose, a trader at MF Global in Chicago. "With the dollar being strong, it's going to hurt these commodities."

Wheat futures fell by 15 cents for May delivery, to $9.14 a bushel on the CBOT at about 12:30 p.m. Earlier in the day they fell to the lowest since January 11, selling for $8,9875 a bushel. Monday's contracts fell by 60 cents, the maximum allowed on the exchange.

Inventories, which fell last year because of poor weather, should increase this year with the larger acreage planted.

Winter Wheat

U.S. farmers have planted 4.1 percent more winter wheat than last year during September through December, according to the report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Spring wheat sowing is also expected to increase by 7.8 percent over last year's April and May plantings.

"I don't see wheat falling out of bed," said Vince Ambrose, a trader at MF Global in Chicago. "Everybody grows wheat, and the weather looks better, maybe not so much in the U.S. but globally. Along with that, we'll see lower prices down the line."

The increase in planting and supply should keep the wheat prices down more than in the recent past.

The wheat crop in the U.S. is worth about $13.7 billion, the fourth-largest crop in the U.S. The leading crops are corn, soybeans and hay.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Wheat News around the Web

Weekend roundup for Wheat


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China raises prices paid to rice and wheat farmers

China said Friday that it would pay farmers more for rice and wheat, in a move aimed at raising output and cooling surging inflation that threatens to fuel unrest ahead of the Olympic Games.

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Wheat, oils & pulses likely to get cheaper in a global village

For India, the crash in global commodity prices comes as an answer to a prayer. Import of wheat, cooking oil and pulses are now likely to be cheaper as speculators and large funds exit positions in New York and Chicago over the last fortnight.

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S.Africa maize, wheat fall on harvest reports

South Africa's benchmark maize and wheat futures prices eased on Friday after reports pointed to plentiful crop supplies locally and internationally.

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Wheat growers concerned about new future and no protection

Farmers have told this week's Senate Inquiry, into changes to the wheat export system, that they won't have enough protection.

Grower groups from New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have told the inquiry that, in years of a large harvest ,AWB used to buy all the wheat in its national pool.

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US Wheat Review: Closes Lower On Positioning Ahead Of USDA

U.S. wheat futures stumbled Friday as traders evened up positions ahead of the release of key U.S. Department of Agriculture reports, analysts said.

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Arkansas Flooding Drowns Fields, Futures

Empty grain elevators surrounded by a swollen White River await a harvest that may never come as floodwaters drown wheat already planted this spring.

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India sees 15 mln tonnes domestic wheat buys in 2008

India has bought 35,000 tonnes of new season wheat from farmers up to March 24 and is confident of scaling purchases up to at least 15 million tonnes in 2008, a senior government official said on Wednesday.

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Thursday, March 27, 2008

Effective Date for Price Limit Rules on the Kansas City Board of Trace Wheat is March 28, 2008


On Friday, March 28, it needs to be remembered that the Kansas City Board of Trade has been given approval by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to change the daily price limits for hard red winter wheat options and futures.

Since it's the effective business date, it entails the evening session on Thursday, March 27, 2008.

The press release said:

"The initial daily price limit for wheat remains at 60 cents per bushel and will increase by 50 percent the following trading session when the price of two or more futures contract months within the first five listed non-spot contract months, or the final contract month of a crop year, closes at limit bid or limit offer. Price limits can expand two consecutive times: to a 90 cent per bushel limit and then to a maximum $1.35 per bushel limit.

"Daily price limits will step back to their prior levels when no futures contract month closes at limit bid or limit offer that day. If price limits are $1.35 per bushel and no wheat futures contract month closes limit bid or limit offer, daily price limits for all contract months revert back to 90 cents per bushel the next business day. If price limits are 90 cents per bushel and no wheat futures contract month closes limit bid or limit offer, daily price limits for all contract months revert back to 60 cents per bushel the next business day. The CME Group is adopting the same price limits policy for its wheat contracts.

"Following the expanded price limits effective trade date February 11, market users asked for additional changes. Market users wanted to see: price limit provisions that expand based on the activity of the front months where the majority of open interest resides, a maximum amount that price limits can expand to, and provisions that allow price limits to contract at the same rate that they expand. These changes address all three of these concerns.

"Options pricing is subject to the same daily price limits as the underlying futures contract."

Monday, March 24, 2008

How the Wheat Market Performed on 3-24-2008

For May Wheat, it climbed by 32 1/2 to finish at 1020, finishing off its high of 42 1/4, but up by 32 1/2 from its low. July Wheat finished a little lower, ending at 1018 1/2, which was 36 down from its high, and up 45 from its low.

Traders on the floor said weather was one of the major factors today, as weather in the west and southwest continues to be dry in the hard red wheat areas, while wet weather persists in the south central and eastern soft red wheat areas.

With wheat having supply problems over the last year, Egypt announced via their agriculture minister that they were planing 3.2 million acres of wheat this year, the most they've planted in a decade.

U.S. Government Needs to Look in Mirror to find Source of Food Price Increases

With wheat and corn being two of the primary food sources in the world, the U.S. government needs to only look in the mirror to find out where the origination of these huge price increases are coming from.

Why? The totally ignorant idea to mandate ethanol increases is proving to be a destructive force in food prices around the world.

The reason the wheat prices are increasing, is the growing price of corn, as a result of the artificially induced ethanol market, has resulted in less wheat being grown, which has then caused the prices to rise.

Creating the artificial and basically worthless ethanol market has already caused huge disruptions in the market, and we're only getting started.

The Bush administration mandated an increase of six times current ethanol use by 2022, which is skewering the food markets in a big way.

As usual, when governments enter into areas they have no idea what they're doing, they end up causing disasters, as they aren't able to take into account the unintended consequences which always arise from these types of initiatives.

To exacerbate all this, wheat harvests from around the world have been poor, as weather slowed the harvests in parts of China, Europe, Australia, and a number of other Asian countries. This created a demand for American grown wheat which was unexpected; causing prices to rise again.

We need to drop the ethanol mandate, which is starting to be questioned by an increasing number of agriculture experts and scientists as to its real value; similar to global warming being discovered recently as built upon faulty computer models, and in reality the weather worldwide has been declining in temperature since 1998.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

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