Winter Wheat Production Down 3.7 Percent

With farmers planting 13 percent less acreage of wheat this year, the winter wheat production is projected to fall 3.7 percent, according to Informa Economics.

This year will bring in approximately 1.466 billion bushels of wheat, in comparison to the 1.523 billion bushels last year.

Yields should rise to about 46 bushels an acre from the 44.2 bushels an acres produced in 2009.

Harvests are up a little from estimates because of the increased bushels an acre. Spring and winter wheat should drop from 2.216 billion bushels in 2009 to 2.079 billion bushels this year, an increase from the 2.04 billion bushels estimated to come in.

Hard red winter wheat will rise over last year, bringing 964 million bushels, a gain from the 919 million produced last year.

Soft red winter wheat on the other hand will drop significantly from the 404 million bushels last year to 295 million bushels in 2010.

Spring Wheat Planting Acreage Rises

Spring Wheat Acreage

In somewhat of a surprise, spring wheat acreage will be higher by about 5 percent, although estimates of wheat plantings for the year are that they'll be down by 9 percent, according to the Planting Intentions Report.

Total acreage to be planted includes hard red and white wheat, and will come in at 13.9 million acres.

Although the final numbers aren't in yet, not much is expected to change in any major way.

This is surprising in light of the continuing downward pressure on wheat prices. It seems farmers would wisen up and plant another crop they can actually make money on.

Wheat Outlook Dismal on Supplies

Wheat Inventory High

Stockpiles of wheat are leaving the industry reeling even more, as the largest inventory in over 20 years is emerging from the heavy wheat harvest.

Projections are there will be close to 1 billion bushels of wheat in the warehouses and bins when the harvest comes in; 20 million bushels beyond the estimates of the USDA.

The already low prices will drop even lower, as farmers continue to plant the grain based on prices from several years ago, rather than prevailing market conditions.

This is expected to finally correct the over-planting of wheat as farmers look to other areas to generate profits, as wheat hasn't been doing it for a few years.

The reasons for wheat being so abundant is lower exports as many countries are planting wheat and getting good results, and American consumers aren't consuming as much, driving domestic demand down. That and just too much wheat being planted is the issue driving the huge wheat inventory.

Wheat Inventory High

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Ray Esally

Gary Thomas

Tommasino Conito

Allen Nine

Kyle Simon

Wheat Wise Author Team

Wheat Wise Author Team


Ray Esally

Gary Thomas

Tommasino Conito

Allen Nine

Kyle Simon

Wheat in Sixth Quarterly Drop

The sixth straight quarterly drop by wheat is the longest losing streak in a minimum of 50 years, as global supply far exceeds demand, continuing to put downward pressure on wheat prices.

According to USDA data, global wheat stockpiles have increased by 10 percent to reach 186.6 million tons during 2009-2010. Oveall production could reach as high as 663.7 tons, only behind last year's 682.3 million tons.

With many other countries focusing on increasing their own domestic wheat supplies, imports have plunged to 121.1 million tons from the 141.2 million tons at the same time last year.

As of mid-September, only 10.5 million metric tons of wheat, or 386 bushels was ordered by foreign buyers, a huge decrease of 36 percent from a year ago.

Wheat supply and prices - Wheat prices going down