US Wheat Follows Other Commodities Down

With no fresh news on underlying wheat fundamentals, the grain followed other commodities down based on the unsurety of the economic bailout of the financial sector in the U.S.

December wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 20 1/4 cents to $7.16 a bushel as investors held back with the weekend coming up and the economic uncertainty.

The Kansas City Board of Trade followed suit as it came under pressure as well. December wheat fell by 19 1/2 cents to $7.16 a bushel.

There were also concerns about demand needing to increase after Egypt and Iran decided to acquire wheat from Russia this week.

As usual, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange followed in the footsteps of its CBOT cousin, also experiencing a decline to $7.89 3/4 a bushel, a 16-cent fall.

Traders are looking for direction from the quarterly grain stocks and small grain reports by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 8:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Although an estimate, it'll help give a better picture on the actual usage of the grain.

It is thought at this time that the report will say wheat production for August fell from the expected 2.462 billion bushels originally estimated to 2.459 billion bushels.

Wheat Joins Commodity Rally as Investors Flee Equities

With the U.S. dollar falling and investors fleeing equities, the commodity market surged today as many of the dollar-denominated commodities enjoyed a significant uptick. Wheat was part of the swing.

Wheat futures in the U.S. increased by 5 percent Wednesday, moving up from its lowest level in over a year.

December wheat futures on the CBOT ended at $7.25-3/4 a bushel, up 35-3/4 cents, a 5.18 percent move upwards.

Even the news that Egypt decided to buy 205,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine and Russia wasn't enough to pressure the grain, as numerous economic factors lined up to give it a solid push forward.

High global wheat inventories have been putting downward pressure on wheat prices recently.

Australia Should Still have Bumper Wheat Crop in Spite of Drought

Even though some areas in Australia may experience a drop in wheat production because of an ongoing drought, overall the country is expected to enjoy a huge increase in exports in contrast to previous years.

The USDA projects about a 25 million ton harvest in 2008-09, in comparison to 13 million tons in 2007. That amount (25 million tons) is expected to be revised down in the next USDA report. Even so, Russell Phillips, general manager, Australian department of agriculture, fisheries and forestry, said he thinks the country could end up exporting about 16 million tons this year.

The new Australian export regulator, Wheat Exports Australia (WEA), has accredited five companies for exports so far, as Cargill Australia Ltd, Elders Toepfer Grain Pty Ltd, Goodman Fielder Consumer Foods Pty Ltd, Grain Pool Pty Ltd and OzEpulse Pty Ltd made the first cut.

Former export regulator Australian Wheat Board (AWB) was replaced after a scandal caused them to be replaced. Still, they have applied to the WEA for accreditation this week and are waiting for a reply. The AWB was cited for taking illicit payments from the former Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein.

Globally, wheat is expected to reach record levels of 670.8 million tons by May 31, 2009, up by 9.9 percent over last year. Stockpiles could surge by 18 percent to 136.2 million tons, according to the USDA.